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Vitoria Guimaraes U19 v Academico Viseu U19

Vitoria Guimaraes U19
4–1Full time
Academico Viseu U19

Júniores U19 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 4–1 Academico Viseu U19 VITORIA GUIMARAES U19 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win38%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.589
The market’s Brier score0.428

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Vitoria Guimaraes U19 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Vitoria Guimaraes U19 v Academico Viseu U19
  4. 8′A goal for Academico Viseu U19 on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
  5. 8′We said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–63
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 0–1 Academico Viseu U19
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
  8. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Academico Viseu U19 win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win 16%)
  9. 15′We said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
  10. 29′Vitoria Guimaraes U19 score on 29′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–34–32
  11. 29′Little has changed for our model: Vitoria Guimaraes U19 38% before kick-off, 34% now. 1–1 · 34–34–32
  12. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 1–1 Academico Viseu U19
  13. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
  14. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Academico Viseu U19 win 31%)
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Vitoria Guimaraes U19 2–1 Academico Viseu U19
  16. 46′Vitoria Guimaraes U19 find the net on 45′. 2–1. 2–1 · 71–21–8
  17. 46′We said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 2–1 · 71–21–8
  18. 46′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 71–21–8
  19. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 2–1 Academico Viseu U19
  20. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
  21. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Vitoria Guimaraes U19 2–1 Academico Viseu U19
  23. 57′We said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
  24. 63′PENALTY MISSED · 63' Academico Viseu U19
  25. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
  26. 68′We said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  27. 73′A goal for Vitoria Guimaraes U19 on 73′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  28. 73′We said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  29. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 3–1 Academico Viseu U19
  30. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
  31. 74′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  32. 83′We said Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 89′Vitoria Guimaraes U19 score on 89′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 89′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Vitoria Guimaraes U19 4–1 Academico Viseu U19
  36. FTFULL TIME Vitoria Guimaraes U19 4–1 Academico Viseu U19
  37. FTVitoria Guimaraes U19 4–1 Academico Viseu U19 · Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vitoria Guimaraes U19 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vitoria Guimaraes U19 38%, draw 27%, Academico Viseu U19 36%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Vitoria Guimaraes U19 v Academico Viseu U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win38%
Draw27%
Academico Viseu U19 win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Academico Viseu U19

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Júniores U19

Last match: 11 Oct · Júniores U19

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Vitoria Guimaraes U198−113
7Academico Viseu U197+410

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vitoria guimaraes u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
38% The market47%
Us38%
Market47%

We make Vitoria Guimaraes U19 a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vitoria Guimaraes U19 v Academico Viseu U191.29 – 1.25
Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 13 v 102 v 7
The market · Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win47% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 14:12
Our probability · Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win38%47%−9
Draw27%28%−1
Academico Viseu U19 win36%25%+11
Over 2.5 goals46%47%−1
Both teams to score51%51%0
Over 1.5 goals72%71%+1
Over 3.5 goals25%27%−2
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 or draw64%75%−11
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 clean sheet29%––
Academico Viseu U19 clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 8.2 9.9 6.2 2.6 1 10.2 12.6 7.8 3.3 2 6.6 8.0 5.0 2.1 3 2.9 3.5 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vitoria Guimaraes U19 down, Academico Viseu U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsVIT 0–1 ACA · ACA 0–0 VIT · ACA 0–1 VIT · VIT 2–2 ACA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 Aug

VITORIA GUIMARAES U19

DWLLLW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–0

ACADEMICO VISEU U19

LLWLWW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 7–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 1
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Porto U197+1116
2Vitoria Guimaraes U198−113
3Rio Ave U197+211
4Gil Vicente U197+211
5Sporting Braga U197010
6Feirense U197−110
7Academico Viseu U197+410
8Famalicão U198−48
9Moreirense U197−37
10Vizela U197−106

The competition's standings before kick-off.