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União Leiria U19 v Alverca U19

União Leiria U19

2–0Full time

Alverca U19

Júniores U19 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

União Leiria U19 2–0 Alverca U19 UNIÃO LEIRIA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said União Leiria U19 win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said União Leiria U19 win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: União Leiria U19 was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
2′KICK-OFF União Leiria U19 v Alverca U19
45′HALF-TIME União Leiria U19 0–0 Alverca U19
47′SECOND HALF União Leiria U19 0–0 Alverca U19
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' União Leiria U19 1–0 Alverca U19
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' União Leiria U19 2–0 Alverca U19
FTFULL TIME União Leiria U19 2–0 Alverca U19
FTUnião Leiria U19 2–0 Alverca U19 · União Leiria U19 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

União Leiria U19 win47%

Draw24%

Alverca U19 win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · união leiria u19 winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

47% The market–

Us47%

We make União Leiria U19 a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
União Leiria U19 win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Alverca U19 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
União Leiria U19 or draw	71%	–	–
União Leiria U19 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Alverca U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 6.3 4.1 1 8.5 11.0 6.9 3.0 2 7.3 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.2 5.3 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+União Leiria U19 down, Alverca U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Júniores U19 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

União Leiria U19 at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alverca U19 away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for União Leiria U19, 1.28 for Alverca U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALV 0–2 UNI · UNI 1–0 ALV

Form · last six in Júniores U19

UNIÃO LEIRIA U19

DDLLDL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–3

ALVERCA U19

LDLLDD2–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U19	6	+8	16
2	Benfica U19	6	+11	14
3	Porto U19	6	+9	13
4	Gil Vicente U19	6	+3	11
5	Oriental U19	6	+2	11
6	Santa Clara U19	6	+6	10
7	Sporting Braga U19	6	+2	10
8	Feirense U19	6	0	10
9	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	7	−2	10
10	Rio Ave U19	6	+1	8
11	Famalicão U19	7	−3	8
12	Mafra U19	6	−6	8
13	Academico Viseu U19	6	+3	7
14	Torreense U19	6	0	7
15	Moreirense U19	6	−2	7
16	Casa Pia U19	6	−2	5
17	SC Farense U19	6	−6	4
18	Alverca U19	6	−5	3
19	União Leiria U19	6	−8	3
20	Vizela U19	6	−11	3