Torreense U19 v Alverca U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Torreense U19 2–1 Alverca U19 TORREENSE U19 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torreense U19 win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.435

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torreense U19 win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Torreense U19 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Torreense U19 v Alverca U19
14′Torreense U19 find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–8
14′We said Torreense U19 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–8
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Torreense U19 1–0 Alverca U19
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Torreense U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
20′We said Torreense U19 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
23′A goal for Torreense U19 on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Torreense U19 2–0 Alverca U19
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Torreense U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
24′We said Torreense U19 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
40′We said Torreense U19 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Torreense U19 2–0 Alverca U19
46′SECOND HALF Torreense U19 2–0 Alverca U19
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Torreense U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
53′Alverca U19 score on 53′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–4
53′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Torreense U19 2–1 Alverca U19
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Torreense U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 79% now
54′We said Torreense U19 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
62′Torreense U19 are down to ten from 62′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 82–15–3
62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Torreense U19
69′We said Torreense U19 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Torreense U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Torreense U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Torreense U19 2–1 Alverca U19
FTTorreense U19 2–1 Alverca U19 · Torreense U19 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torreense U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torreense U19 46%, draw 27%, Alverca U19 26%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Torreense U19 v Alverca U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Torreense U19 win46%

Draw27%

Alverca U19 win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torreense U19

Alverca U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Júniores U19

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Torreense U19	8	+1	11
10	Alverca U19	8	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torreense u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Torreense U19 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torreense U19 v Alverca U19~~1.38 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 6~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torreense U19 win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Alverca U19 win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Torreense U19 or draw	74%	–	–
Torreense U19 clean sheet	38%	–	–
Alverca U19 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 9.8 9.2 4.5 1 13.1 12.6 6.1 2.0 2 9.0 8.6 4.2 3 4.2 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torreense U19 down, Alverca U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,105 Júniores U19 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torreense U19 at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Alverca U19 away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Torreense U19, 0.97 for Alverca U19. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALV 1–1 TOR · TOR 0–1 ALV · ALV 0–2 TOR · TOR 3–1 ALV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 23 Aug

TORREENSE U19

LLWWWD2–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

ALVERCA U19

LLDDLW1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Campeonato Nacional U19 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Benfica U19	8	+13	17
2	Sporting CP U19	8	+4	17
3	Santa Clara U19	8	+8	14
4	Torreense U19	8	+1	11
5	Oriental U19	8	0	11
6	Casa Pia U19	8	+1	11
7	Mafra U19	8	−7	9
8	SC Farense U19	8	−6	7
9	União Leiria U19	8	−8	6
10	Alverca U19	8	−6	6