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Sporting CP U19 v Mafra U19

Sporting CP U19

1–1Full time

Mafra U19

Júniores U19 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Sporting CP U19 1–1 Mafra U19 SPORTING CP U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting CP U19 win~~64%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.078

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.303

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting CP U19 win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting CP U19 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
1′KICK-OFF Sporting CP U19 v Mafra U19
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sporting CP U19 win: 64% at kick-off, 53% now
45′HALF-TIME Sporting CP U19 0–0 Mafra U19
46′SECOND HALF Sporting CP U19 0–0 Mafra U19
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Sporting CP U19 1–0 Mafra U19
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sporting CP U19 1–1 Mafra U19
FTFULL TIME Sporting CP U19 1–1 Mafra U19
FTSporting CP U19 1–1 Mafra U19 · Sporting CP U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sporting CP U19 win64%

Draw20%

Mafra U19 win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cp u19 winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

64% The market76%

Us64%

~~Market~~76%

We make Sporting CP U19 a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sporting cp u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting CP U19 win	64%	76%	−12
Draw	20%	15%	+4
Mafra U19 win	17%	9%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	62%	60%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	42%	+14
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Sporting CP U19 or draw	83%	91%	−8
Sporting CP U19 clean sheet	37%	–	–
Mafra U19 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.6%

0123450 4.4 4.1 2.1 1 8.8 9.1 4.5 2 9.6 9.6 4.9 3 7.0 7.0 3.5 4 3.9 3.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting CP U19 down, Mafra U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Júniores U19 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting CP U19 at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mafra U19 away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Sporting CP U19, 1.01 for Mafra U19. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAF 0–5 SPO · SPO 2–1 MAF · SPO 3–2 MAF · MAF 3–1 SPO

Form · last six in Júniores U19

SPORTING CP U19

WDWWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

MAFRA U19

LWDWLD0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–7 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U19	6	+8	16
2	Benfica U19	6	+11	14
3	Porto U19	6	+9	13
4	Gil Vicente U19	6	+3	11
5	Oriental U19	6	+2	11
6	Santa Clara U19	6	+6	10
7	Sporting Braga U19	6	+2	10
8	Feirense U19	6	0	10
9	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	7	−2	10
10	Rio Ave U19	6	+1	8
11	Famalicão U19	7	−3	8
12	Mafra U19	6	−6	8
13	Academico Viseu U19	6	+3	7
14	Torreense U19	6	0	7
15	Moreirense U19	6	−2	7
16	Casa Pia U19	6	−2	5
17	SC Farense U19	6	−6	4
18	Alverca U19	6	−5	3
19	União Leiria U19	6	−8	3
20	Vizela U19	6	−11	3