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Sporting Braga U19 v Porto U19

Sporting Braga U19

2–4Full time

Porto U19

Júniores U19 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Sporting Braga U19 2–4 Porto U19 PORTO U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Porto U19 win~~48%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.326

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Porto U19 win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Porto U19 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 30–21–48
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Braga U19 v Porto U19
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Sporting Braga U19 0–1 Porto U19
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Sporting Braga U19 0–2 Porto U19
12′Porto U19 find the net on 11′. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–9–87
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Porto U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 87% now
26′We said Porto U19 at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–2 · 4–8–88
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Porto U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Sporting Braga U19 0–3 Porto U19
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Sporting Braga U19 0–4 Porto U19
45′33′ and it is 0–4: Porto U19 have scored. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Braga U19 0–4 Porto U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Porto U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 100% now
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Braga U19 0–4 Porto U19
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Sporting Braga U19 1–4 Porto U19
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Sporting Braga U19 2–4 Porto U19
FTFULL TIME Sporting Braga U19 2–4 Porto U19
FTSporting Braga U19 2–4 Porto U19 · Porto U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sporting Braga U19 win30%

Draw21%

Porto U19 win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · porto u19 winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

48% The market53%

Us48%

~~Market~~53%

We make Porto U19 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · porto u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Braga U19 win	30%	23%	+8
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Porto U19 win	48%	53%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	71%	61%	+9
Both teams to score	69%	61%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	50%	41%	+9
Sporting Braga U19 or draw	52%	47%	+5
Sporting Braga U19 clean sheet	13%	–	–
Porto U19 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 2.8 5.2 5.4 3.7 1 4.1 8.5 8.5 5.9 3.1 2 3.3 6.7 6.8 4.7 2.4 3 3.6 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Braga U19 down, Porto U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Júniores U19 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Braga U19 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Porto U19 away: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Sporting Braga U19, 2.07 for Porto U19. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–2 SPO · SPO 1–5 POR · SPO 2–2 POR · POR 2–1 SPO

Form · last six in Júniores U19

SPORTING BRAGA U19

WWDLLW2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

PORTO U19

WWWLWD1–0 · 3–1 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U19	6	+8	16
2	Benfica U19	6	+11	14
3	Porto U19	6	+9	13
4	Gil Vicente U19	6	+3	11
5	Oriental U19	6	+2	11
6	Santa Clara U19	6	+6	10
7	Sporting Braga U19	6	+2	10
8	Feirense U19	6	0	10
9	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	7	−2	10
10	Rio Ave U19	6	+1	8
11	Famalicão U19	7	−3	8
12	Mafra U19	6	−6	8
13	Academico Viseu U19	6	+3	7
14	Torreense U19	6	0	7
15	Moreirense U19	6	−2	7
16	Casa Pia U19	6	−2	5
17	SC Farense U19	6	−6	4
18	Alverca U19	6	−5	3
19	União Leiria U19	6	−8	3
20	Vizela U19	6	−11	3