Porto U19 v Gil Vicente U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Porto U19 5–0 Gil Vicente U19 PORTO U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Porto U19 win~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.110

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Porto U19 win at 73%.
1′Much as we predicted: Porto U19 was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–16–11
1′KICK-OFF Porto U19 v Gil Vicente U19
6′Much as we predicted: Porto U19 was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 72–17–12
29′Porto U19 score on 28′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Porto U19 1–0 Gil Vicente U19
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Porto U19 win: 73% at kick-off, 87% now
30′We published Porto U19 at 73%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
45′HALF-TIME Porto U19 1–0 Gil Vicente U19
46′SECOND HALF Porto U19 1–0 Gil Vicente U19
56′Porto U19 find the net on 56′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Porto U19 2–0 Gil Vicente U19
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Porto U19 win: 73% at kick-off, 98% now
57′We published Porto U19 at 73%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
58′A goal for Porto U19 on 58′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Porto U19 3–0 Gil Vicente U19
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Porto U19
72′A goal for Porto U19 on 72′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′We published Porto U19 at 73%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Porto U19 3–0 Gil Vicente U19
82′Porto U19 score on 81′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Porto U19 4–0 Gil Vicente U19
91′Porto U19 find the net on 90′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Porto U19 5–0 Gil Vicente U19
92′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Porto U19 5–0 Gil Vicente U19
FTPorto U19 5–0 Gil Vicente U19 · Porto U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Porto U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Porto U19 73%, draw 16%, Gil Vicente U19 11%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Porto U19 v Gil Vicente U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Porto U19 win73%

Draw16%

Gil Vicente U19 win11%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Porto U19

Gil Vicente U19

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Youth League

Last match: 10 Oct · Júniores U19

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · porto u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Porto U19 a 73% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Porto U19 v Gil Vicente U19~~2.61 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Porto U19 win	73%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Gil Vicente U19 win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Porto U19 or draw	89%	–	–
Porto U19 clean sheet	40%	–	–
Gil Vicente U19 clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.9%

0123450 3.1 2.8 1 7.8 7.1 3.3 2 9.9 9.0 4.2 3 8.5 7.7 3.6 4 5.6 5.1 2.3 5 3.0 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Porto U19 down, Gil Vicente U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Júniores U19 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Porto U19 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gil Vicente U19 away: 0.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.61 goals for Porto U19, 0.92 for Gil Vicente U19. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POR 3–0 GIL · GIL 1–2 POR · GIL 0–1 POR · POR 3–0 GIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 22 Aug

PORTO U19

WWLWDW3–1 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 4–2

GIL VICENTE U19

WDLWDL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Porto U19	7	+11	16
2	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	8	−1	13
3	Rio Ave U19	7	+2	11
4	Gil Vicente U19	7	+2	11
5	Sporting Braga U19	7	0	10
6	Feirense U19	7	−1	10
7	Academico Viseu U19	7	+4	10
8	Famalicão U19	8	−4	8
9	Moreirense U19	7	−3	7
10	Vizela U19	7	−10	6