Moreirense U19 v Feirense U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Moreirense U19 1–1 Feirense U19 MOREIRENSE U19 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Moreirense U19 win~~40%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.737

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Moreirense U19 win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Moreirense U19 was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Moreirense U19 v Feirense U19
9′Much as we predicted: Moreirense U19 was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
14′A goal for Feirense U19 on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
14′We said Moreirense U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Moreirense U19 0–1 Feirense U19
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Moreirense U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Feirense U19 win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Moreirense U19 win 14%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 11–24–65
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Moreirense U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
37′We said Moreirense U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
45′HALF-TIME Moreirense U19 0–1 Feirense U19
46′SECOND HALF Moreirense U19 0–1 Feirense U19
49′Moreirense U19 score on 49′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–48–23
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Moreirense U19 1–1 Feirense U19
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Moreirense U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 29% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Feirense U19 win 23%)
51′We said Moreirense U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–49–22
60′We said Moreirense U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–19
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Moreirense U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
69′We said Moreirense U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–15
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Moreirense U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
89′We said Moreirense U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
FTFULL TIME Moreirense U19 1–1 Feirense U19
FTMoreirense U19 1–1 Feirense U19 · Moreirense U19 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Moreirense U19 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Moreirense U19 40%, draw 30%, Feirense U19 30%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Moreirense U19 v Feirense U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Moreirense U19 win40%

Draw30%

Feirense U19 win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Moreirense U19

Feirense U19

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Júniores U19

Last match: 10 Oct · Júniores U19

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Feirense U19	7	−1	10
9	Moreirense U19	7	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moreirense u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market44%

Us40%

~~Market~~44%

We make Moreirense U19 a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Moreirense U19 v Feirense U19~~1.13 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~9 v 6

~~The market · Moreirense U19 win~~44% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Moreirense U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moreirense U19 win	40%	44%	−4
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Feirense U19 win	30%	28%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	34%	49%	−15
Both teams to score	41%	54%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	61%	72%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	16%	29%	−13
Moreirense U19 or draw	70%	72%	−2
Moreirense U19 clean sheet	40%	–	–
Feirense U19 clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 13.1 11.9 5.6 1 14.2 13.1 6.1 2 8.0 7.4 3.5 3 3.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moreirense U19 down, Feirense U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Júniores U19 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Moreirense U19 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Feirense U19 away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Moreirense U19, 0.94 for Feirense U19. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 Aug

MOREIRENSE U19

LLWWDL1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

FEIRENSE U19

WLWWDL2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Porto U19	7	+11	16
2	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	8	−1	13
3	Rio Ave U19	7	+2	11
4	Gil Vicente U19	7	+2	11
5	Sporting Braga U19	7	0	10
6	Feirense U19	7	−1	10
7	Academico Viseu U19	7	+4	10
8	Famalicão U19	8	−4	8
9	Moreirense U19	7	−3	7
10	Vizela U19	7	−10	6