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Mafra U19 v Casa Pia U19
Mafra U19Casa Pia U19Júniores U19 · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Mafra U19 win at 45%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Mafra U19 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–31
- 1′KICK-OFF Mafra U19 v Casa Pia U19
- 9′Little has changed for our model: Mafra U19 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
- 25′Casa Pia U19 find the net on 24′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
- 25′We said Mafra U19 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–23–59
- 25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Mafra U19 0–1 Casa Pia U19
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Mafra U19 win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
- 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Casa Pia U19 win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Mafra U19 win 18%)
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–60
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Mafra U19 win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 37′We said Mafra U19 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 38′Casa Pia U19 are down to ten from 38′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 38′🟥 RED CARD · 38' Casa Pia U19
- 40′A goal for Mafra U19 on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–35–27
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Mafra U19 1–1 Casa Pia U19
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Mafra U19 win: 45% at kick-off, 37% now
- 42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Mafra U19
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Mafra U19 win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Mafra U19 0–1 Casa Pia U19
- 46′SECOND HALF Mafra U19 0–1 Casa Pia U19
- 53′We said Mafra U19 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Mafra U19 win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
- 69′We said Mafra U19 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
- 75′PENALTY MISSED · 74' Mafra U19
- FTFULL TIME Mafra U19 0–1 Casa Pia U19
- FTMafra U19 0–1 Casa Pia U19 · Mafra U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassMafra U19 are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Mafra U19 45%, draw 24%, Casa Pia U19 31%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Mafra U19 win45%Casa Pia U19 win31%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 8
Match timeline
All events
Mafra U19MINCasa Pia U19Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Mafra U19
Casa Pia U19
Last match: 10 Oct · Júniores U19
Last match: 10 Oct · Júniores U19
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mafra U19 | 7 | −6 | 9 |
| 7 | Casa Pia U19 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Mafra U19 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra U19 win | 45% | 38% | +7 |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | −4 |
| Casa Pia U19 win | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 31% | +1 |
| Mafra U19 or draw | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Mafra U19 clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Casa Pia U19 clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 Aug
MAFRA U19
CASA PIA U19
The table
2026/27 · group 2| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting CP U19 | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 2 |  Benfica U19 | 7 | +9 | 14 |
| 3 |  Santa Clara U19 | 7 | +8 | 13 |
| 4 |  Oriental U19 | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 |  Torreense U19 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Mafra U19 | 7 | −6 | 9 |
| 7 | Casa Pia U19 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 |  União Leiria U19 | 7 | −6 | 6 |
| 9 |  SC Farense U19 | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 10 |  Alverca U19 | 7 | −7 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.