Famalicão U19 v Vizela U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Famalicão U19 0–0 Vizela U19 FAMALICÃO U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Famalicão U19 win~~63%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.087

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.926

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Famalicão U19 win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Famalicão U19 63% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–19–19
1′KICK-OFF Famalicão U19 v Vizela U19
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Famalicão U19 win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
42′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–30–19
45′HALF-TIME Famalicão U19 0–0 Vizela U19
46′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–32–19
46′SECOND HALF Famalicão U19 0–0 Vizela U19
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 45–37–18
56′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Famalicão U19 win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
63′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Famalicão U19 win 39%)
69′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–15
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Famalicão U19 win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
74′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–13
78′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–65–11
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Famalicão U19 win: 63% at kick-off, 22% now
81′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–72–9
84′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–80–7
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Famalicão U19 win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
88′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
93′We said Famalicão U19 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Famalicão U19 win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
95′Famalicão U19 are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 3–96–1
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Famalicão U19
FTFULL TIME Famalicão U19 0–0 Vizela U19
FTFamalicão U19 0–0 Vizela U19 · Famalicão U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Famalicão U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Famalicão U19 63%, draw 19%, Vizela U19 19%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Famalicão U19 v Vizela U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Famalicão U19 win63%

Draw19%

Vizela U19 win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Famalicão U19

Vizela U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Júniores U19

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Famalicão U19	8	−4	8
10	Vizela U19	7	−10	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · famalicão u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:26 · locked at kick-off

63% The market55%

Us63%

~~Market~~55%

We make Famalicão U19 a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Famalicão U19 v Vizela U19~~2.36 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 6~~8 v 10

~~The market · Famalicão U19 win~~55% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Famalicão U19 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Famalicão U19 win	63%	55%	+8
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Vizela U19 win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	69%	58%	+11
Both teams to score	63%	58%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	79%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	48%	38%	+10
Famalicão U19 or draw	81%	79%	+2
Famalicão U19 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Vizela U19 clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.0 3.5 2.1 1 6.8 8.1 4.8 2 7.8 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 6.1 7.2 4.4 4 3.7 4.3 2.6 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Famalicão U19 down, Vizela U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Júniores U19 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Famalicão U19 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vizela U19 away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Famalicão U19, 1.21 for Vizela U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FAM 3–3 VIZ · VIZ 2–1 FAM · VIZ 1–3 FAM · FAM 0–0 VIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 23 Aug

FAMALICÃO U19

WLLDWL3–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

VIZELA U19

LLWLLW0–1 · 2–5 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–7 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Porto U19	7	+11	16
2	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	8	−1	13
3	Rio Ave U19	7	+2	11
4	Gil Vicente U19	7	+2	11
5	Sporting Braga U19	7	0	10
6	Feirense U19	7	−1	10
7	Academico Viseu U19	7	+4	10
8	Famalicão U19	8	−4	8
9	Moreirense U19	7	−3	7
10	Vizela U19	7	−10	6