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Casa Pia U19 v SC Farense U19

Casa Pia U19

4–2Full time

SC Farense U19

Júniores U19 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Casa Pia U19 4–2 SC Farense U19 CASA PIA U19 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Casa Pia U19 win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.527

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Casa Pia U19 win at 41%.
2′SC Farense U19 find the net on 4′. 0–0. 0–0 · 41–28–31
2′KICK-OFF Casa Pia U19 v SC Farense U19
6′⚽ GOAL · 4' Casa Pia U19 0–1 SC Farense U19
12′⚽ GOAL · 10' Casa Pia U19 1–1 SC Farense U19
23′A goal for Casa Pia U19 on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–33–29
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Casa Pia U19 2–1 SC Farense U19
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Casa Pia U19 2–2 SC Farense U19
45′HALF-TIME Casa Pia U19 2–2 SC Farense U19
46′SECOND HALF Casa Pia U19 2–2 SC Farense U19
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Casa Pia U19 3–2 SC Farense U19
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Casa Pia U19 4–2 SC Farense U19
FTFULL TIME Casa Pia U19 4–2 SC Farense U19
FTCasa Pia U19 4–2 SC Farense U19 · Casa Pia U19 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Casa Pia U19 win41%

Draw28%

SC Farense U19 win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · casa pia u19 winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Casa Pia U19 a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casa Pia U19 win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
SC Farense U19 win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Casa Pia U19 or draw	69%	–	–
Casa Pia U19 clean sheet	35%	–	–
SC Farense U19 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.3 10.2 5.5 2.0 1 12.1 12.9 6.8 2.5 2 7.7 8.0 4.3 3 3.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casa Pia U19 down, SC Farense U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Júniores U19 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Casa Pia U19 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SC Farense U19 away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Casa Pia U19, 1.06 for SC Farense U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAS 0–0 SCF · SCF 2–0 CAS · CAS 0–1 SCF · SCF 1–1 CAS

Form · last six in Júniores U19

CASA PIA U19

LWDLLD0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

SC FARENSE U19

DWLLLL0–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U19	6	+8	16
2	Benfica U19	6	+11	14
3	Porto U19	6	+9	13
4	Gil Vicente U19	6	+3	11
5	Oriental U19	6	+2	11
6	Santa Clara U19	6	+6	10
7	Sporting Braga U19	6	+2	10
8	Feirense U19	6	0	10
9	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	7	−2	10
10	Rio Ave U19	6	+1	8
11	Famalicão U19	7	−3	8
12	Mafra U19	6	−6	8
13	Academico Viseu U19	6	+3	7
14	Torreense U19	6	0	7
15	Moreirense U19	6	−2	7
16	Casa Pia U19	6	−2	5
17	SC Farense U19	6	−6	4
18	Alverca U19	6	−5	3
19	União Leiria U19	6	−8	3
20	Vizela U19	6	−11	3