Casa Pia U19 v Benfica U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Casa Pia U19 0–0 Benfica U19 BENFICA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Benfica U19 win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica U19 win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Benfica U19 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 18–21–61
1′KICK-OFF Casa Pia U19 v Benfica U19
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Benfica U19 win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
40′We said Benfica U19 at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 18–32–50
42′We said Benfica U19 at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 18–33–49
45′HALF-TIME Casa Pia U19 0–0 Benfica U19
46′SECOND HALF Casa Pia U19 0–0 Benfica U19
53′We said Benfica U19 at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 17–39–44
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 17–41–43
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Benfica U19 win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
60′We said Benfica U19 at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 16–45–39
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Benfica U19 win 42%)
67′We said Benfica U19 at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 14–52–34
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Benfica U19 win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
72′We said Benfica U19 at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 12–59–29
76′We said Benfica U19 at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 11–65–24
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Benfica U19 win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
80′Casa Pia U19 score on 79′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–17–2
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Casa Pia U19 1–0 Benfica U19
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Benfica U19 win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Casa Pia U19 win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 71%)
80′GOAL DISALLOWED · 80' Casa Pia U19
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Benfica U19 win: 62% at kick-off, 19% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Casa Pia U19 win 81%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Benfica U19 win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
92′We said Benfica U19 at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 2–93–4
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Benfica U19 win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Casa Pia U19 0–0 Benfica U19
FTCasa Pia U19 0–0 Benfica U19 · Benfica U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Benfica U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Casa Pia U19 18%, draw 21%, Benfica U19 62%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Casa Pia U19 v Benfica U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Casa Pia U19 win18%

Draw21%

Benfica U19 win62%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Casa Pia U19

Benfica U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Júniores U19

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · benfica u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Benfica U19 a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.1, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Casa Pia U19 v Benfica U19~~1.00 – 2.08

~~Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casa Pia U19 win	18%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Benfica U19 win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Casa Pia U19 or draw	38%	–	–
Casa Pia U19 clean sheet	13%	–	–
Benfica U19 clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.8%

0123450 4.9 9.6 9.8 6.8 3.6 1 4.7 9.5 9.6 6.6 3.5 2 2.4 4.8 4.8 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casa Pia U19 down, Benfica U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,105 Júniores U19 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Casa Pia U19 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Benfica U19 away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Casa Pia U19, 2.08 for Benfica U19. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BEN 6–0 CAS · CAS 1–0 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 23 Aug

CASA PIA U19

DLLDWW0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–0

BENFICA U19

WWWDLW5–0 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27 · Campeonato Nacional U19 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Benfica U19	8	+13	17
2	Sporting CP U19	8	+4	17
3	Santa Clara U19	8	+8	14
4	Torreense U19	8	+1	11
5	Oriental U19	8	0	11
6	Casa Pia U19	8	+1	11
7	Mafra U19	8	−7	9
8	SC Farense U19	8	−6	7
9	União Leiria U19	8	−8	6
10	Alverca U19	8	−6	6