Benfica U19 v Sporting CP U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Benfica U19 4–0 Sporting CP U19 BENFICA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Benfica U19 win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 2 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica U19 win at 56%.
45′Benfica U19 find the net on 45′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′We published Benfica U19 at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
46′SECOND HALF Benfica U19 4–0 Sporting CP U19
FTFULL TIME Benfica U19 4–0 Sporting CP U19
FTBenfica U19 4–0 Sporting CP U19 · Benfica U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Benfica U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Benfica U19 56%, draw 22%, Sporting CP U19 22%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Benfica U19 v Sporting CP U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Benfica U19 win56%

Draw22%

Sporting CP U19 win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Benfica U19

Sporting CP U19

6Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Júniores U19

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Youth League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · benfica u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Benfica U19 a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Benfica U19 v Sporting CP U19~~1.98 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Benfica U19 win

Published at 57%, 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benfica U19 win	56%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Sporting CP U19 win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Benfica U19 or draw	78%	–	–
Benfica U19 clean sheet	32%	–	–
Sporting CP U19 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.6 5.1 3.0 1 8.7 9.9 5.7 2.2 2 8.5 9.6 5.5 2.2 3 5.6 6.3 3.6 4 2.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Benfica U19 down, Sporting CP U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Júniores U19 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Benfica U19 at home: 4.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting CP U19 away: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Benfica U19, 1.15 for Sporting CP U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BEN 2–2 SPO · SPO 2–2 BEN · BEN 1–0 SPO · SPO 0–1 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 Aug

BENFICA U19

WWWWDL3–2 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

SPORTING CP U19

DWWWWD1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U19	7	+8	17
2	Benfica U19	7	+9	14
3	Santa Clara U19	7	+8	13
4	Oriental U19	7	+1	11
5	Torreense U19	7	+1	10
6	Mafra U19	7	−6	9
7	Casa Pia U19	7	0	8
8	União Leiria U19	7	−6	6
9	SC Farense U19	7	−8	4
10	Alverca U19	7	−7	3