Alverca U19 v Oriental U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Alverca U19 2–1 Oriental U19 ALVERCA U19 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alverca U19 win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.615

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alverca U19 win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Alverca U19 was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Alverca U19 v Oriental U19
9′Much as we predicted: Alverca U19 was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
17′A goal for Alverca U19 on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
17′We published Alverca U19 at 39%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Alverca U19 1–0 Oriental U19
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Alverca U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
24′Alverca U19 score on 24′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
24′We published Alverca U19 at 39%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Alverca U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Alverca U19 2–0 Oriental U19
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Alverca U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
27′We published Alverca U19 at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
40′Alverca U19 find the net on 40′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Alverca U19 3–0 Oriental U19
41′We published Alverca U19 at 39%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
41′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 98–1–0
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Alverca U19
45′HALF-TIME Alverca U19 2–0 Oriental U19
46′SECOND HALF Alverca U19 2–0 Oriental U19
58′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
63′Oriental U19 find the net on 63′. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–18–4
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Alverca U19 2–1 Oriental U19
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Alverca U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 78% now
64′We published Alverca U19 at 39%. Our model now makes it 79%. 2–1 · 79–18–3
66′We published Alverca U19 at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Alverca U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Alverca U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Alverca U19 2–1 Oriental U19
FTAlverca U19 2–1 Oriental U19 · Alverca U19 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alverca U19 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alverca U19 39%, draw 27%, Oriental U19 34%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Alverca U19 v Oriental U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alverca U19 win39%

Draw27%

Oriental U19 win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alverca U19

Oriental U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Júniores U19

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Oriental U19	7	+1	11
10	Alverca U19	7	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alverca u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Alverca U19 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alverca U19 v Oriental U19~~1.31 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 11~~10 v 4

~~The market · Alverca U19 win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alverca U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alverca U19 win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Oriental U19 win	34%	35%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Alverca U19 or draw	66%	65%	+1
Alverca U19 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Oriental U19 clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.6 9.8 5.8 2.4 1 10.8 12.5 7.4 3.0 2 7.0 8.1 4.8 3 3.1 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alverca U19 down, Oriental U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Júniores U19 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Alverca U19 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Oriental U19 away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Alverca U19, 1.19 for Oriental U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 15 Aug

ALVERCA U19

DLLDDL2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

ORIENTAL U19

DLWDWL0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U19	7	+8	17
2	Benfica U19	7	+9	14
3	Santa Clara U19	7	+8	13
4	Oriental U19	7	+1	11
5	Torreense U19	7	+1	10
6	Mafra U19	7	−6	9
7	Casa Pia U19	7	0	8
8	União Leiria U19	7	−6	6
9	SC Farense U19	7	−8	4
10	Alverca U19	7	−7	3