Academico Viseu U19 v Porto U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Academico Viseu U19 5–1 Porto U19 PORTO U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Porto U19 win~~58%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.998

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.120

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Porto U19 win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Porto U19 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 21–21–58
1′KICK-OFF Academico Viseu U19 v Porto U19
11′Academico Viseu U19 find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 44–24–32
11′We said Porto U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–0 · 44–24–32
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Academico Viseu U19 1–0 Porto U19
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Porto U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 32% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Academico Viseu U19 win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Porto U19 win 56%)
19′A goal for Porto U19 on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–24–54
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Academico Viseu U19 1–1 Porto U19
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Porto U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 54% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Porto U19 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Academico Viseu U19 win 46%)
25′We said Porto U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 2–1 · 47–25–27
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Academico Viseu U19 2–1 Porto U19
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Porto U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 27% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Academico Viseu U19 win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Porto U19 win 53%)
26′Academico Viseu U19 score on 25′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 48–25–27
33′We said Porto U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–1 · 50–26–24
35′Academico Viseu U19 find the net on 34′. 3–1. 3–1 · 77–15–9
35′We said Porto U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 3–1 · 77–15–9
35′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 77–15–9
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Academico Viseu U19 3–1 Porto U19
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Porto U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 9% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Porto U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Academico Viseu U19 3–1 Porto U19
46′SECOND HALF Academico Viseu U19 3–1 Porto U19
51′We said Porto U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 3–1 · 84–12–4
61′A goal for Academico Viseu U19 on 61′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 98–2–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Academico Viseu U19 4–1 Porto U19
62′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 98–2–0
73′Academico Viseu U19 score on 72′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
73′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Academico Viseu U19 5–1 Porto U19
87′Porto U19 are down to ten from 87′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 5–1 · 100–0–0
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Porto U19
FTFULL TIME Academico Viseu U19 5–1 Porto U19
FTAcademico Viseu U19 5–1 Porto U19 · Porto U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Porto U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Academico Viseu U19 21%, draw 21%, Porto U19 58%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Academico Viseu U19 v Porto U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Academico Viseu U19 win21%

Draw21%

Porto U19 win58%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Academico Viseu U19

Porto U19

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Júniores U19

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Youth League

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · porto u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

58% The market61%

Us58%

~~Market~~61%

We make Porto U19 a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Academico Viseu U19 v Porto U19~~1.20 – 2.11

~~Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 19~~7 v 1

~~The market · Porto U19 win~~61% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Porto U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Academico Viseu U19 win	21%	16%	+5
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Porto U19 win	58%	61%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	56%	+8
Both teams to score	61%	53%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	42%	35%	+7
Academico Viseu U19 or draw	42%	39%	+3
Academico Viseu U19 clean sheet	13%	–	–
Porto U19 clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 7.8 8.1 5.7 3.1 1 4.5 9.3 9.5 6.7 3.6 2 2.7 5.5 5.7 4.0 2.1 3 2.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Academico Viseu U19 down, Porto U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,105 Júniores U19 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Academico Viseu U19 at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Porto U19 away: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Academico Viseu U19, 2.11 for Porto U19. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ACA 2–1 POR · POR 2–1 ACA · POR 4–0 ACA · ACA 2–1 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Júniores U19 this season · since 22 Aug

ACADEMICO VISEU U19

LWLWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 7–1 · 1–0 · 1–4

PORTO U19

WLWDWW5–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 5–0

The table

2026/27 · Campeonato Nacional U19 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Porto U19	8	+16	19
2	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	9	+2	16
3	Rio Ave U19	8	+3	14
4	Feirense U19	8	−1	11
5	Gil Vicente U19	8	−3	11
6	Sporting Braga U19	8	−1	10
7	Academico Viseu U19	8	+1	10
8	Famalicão U19	9	−4	9
9	Moreirense U19	8	−3	8
10	Vizela U19	8	−10	7