Academico Viseu U19 v Moreirense U19 prediction · Júniores U19

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Academico Viseu U19 1–0 Moreirense U19 ACADEMICO VISEU U19 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Academico Viseu U19 win~~48%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.517

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Academico Viseu U19 win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Academico Viseu U19 v Moreirense U19
3′Much as we predicted: Academico Viseu U19 was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
6′Much as we predicted: Academico Viseu U19 was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–25
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Academico Viseu U19 1–0 Moreirense U19
38′A goal for Academico Viseu U19 on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Academico Viseu U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Academico Viseu U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 43% now
39′A goal for Academico Viseu U19 on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Academico Viseu U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Academico Viseu U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Academico Viseu U19 1–0 Moreirense U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Academico Viseu U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 28' Academico Viseu U19 1–0 Moreirense U19
46′SECOND HALF Academico Viseu U19 1–0 Moreirense U19
58′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Moreirense U19
58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Academico Viseu U19
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Academico Viseu U19
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Moreirense U19
90′⚽ GOAL · 28' Academico Viseu U19 1–0 Moreirense U19
90′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Academico Viseu U19
90′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Academico Viseu U19
FTFULL TIME Academico Viseu U19 1–0 Moreirense U19
FTAcademico Viseu U19 1–0 Moreirense U19 · Academico Viseu U19 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Academico Viseu U19 win48%

Draw27%

Moreirense U19 win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Academico Viseu U19

Moreirense U19

15Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Academico Viseu U19	6	+3	7
16	Moreirense U19	6	−2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · academico viseu u19 winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

48% The market41%

Us48%

~~Market~~41%

We make Academico Viseu U19 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · academico viseu u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Academico Viseu U19 win	48%	41%	+6
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Moreirense U19 win	25%	30%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−6
Academico Viseu U19 or draw	75%	70%	+5
Academico Viseu U19 clean sheet	40%	–	–
Moreirense U19 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 10.3 9.2 4.2 1 13.8 12.5 5.7 2 9.5 8.6 3.9 3 4.5 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Academico Viseu U19 down, Moreirense U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,093 Júniores U19 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Júniores U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Academico Viseu U19 at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Moreirense U19 away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Academico Viseu U19, 0.92 for Moreirense U19. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2023

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Júniores U19

ACADEMICO VISEU U19

DLLWLW1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 7–1

MOREIRENSE U19

LLLWWD1–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U19	7	+8	17
2	Porto U19	7	+11	16
3	Benfica U19	6	+11	14
4	Vitoria Guimaraes U19	8	−1	13
5	Rio Ave U19	7	+2	11
6	Gil Vicente U19	7	+2	11
7	Oriental U19	7	+1	11
8	Santa Clara U19	6	+6	10
9	Torreense U19	7	+1	10
10	Sporting Braga U19	7	0	10
11	Feirense U19	7	−1	10
12	Mafra U19	7	−6	9
13	Casa Pia U19	7	0	8
14	Famalicão U19	8	−4	8
15	Academico Viseu U19	6	+3	7
16	Moreirense U19	6	−2	7
17	União Leiria U19	7	−6	6
18	Vizela U19	7	−10	6
19	SC Farense U19	7	−8	4
20	Alverca U19	7	−7	3