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Vitoria Setubal v Real

Vitoria Setubal

1–1Full time

Real

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real VITORIA SETUBAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vitoria Setubal win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.972

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vitoria Setubal win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vitoria Setubal 55% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
1′KICK-OFF Vitoria Setubal v Real
4′Little has changed for our model: Vitoria Setubal 55% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Vitoria Setubal 1–0 Real
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Vitoria Setubal 1–0 Real
18′6′ and it is 1–0: Vitoria Setubal have scored. 1–0 · 78–14–8
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
21′6′ and it is 1–0: Vitoria Setubal have scored. 1–0 · 78–15–7
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
36′We said Vitoria Setubal at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–6
37′Real find the net on 36′. 1–1. 1–1 · 48–30–22
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
45′PENALTY MISSED · 48' Vitoria Setubal
45′HALF-TIME Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Vitoria Setubal win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 6' Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real
45′⚽ GOAL · 36' Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real
46′SECOND HALF Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real
90′⚽ GOAL · 6' Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real
90′⚽ GOAL · 36' Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real
90′PENALTY MISSED · 48' Vitoria Setubal
FTFULL TIME Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Real
FTVitoria Setubal 1–1 Real · Vitoria Setubal win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vitoria Setubal win55%

Draw22%

Real win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vitoria Setubal

Real

28Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Real	4	+1	6
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Time to rise? Ranking European football's sleeping giantsBBC Sport · 1 day ago · Real, Zaragoza

Real seek McTominay move - Friday's gossipBBC Sport · 2 days ago · Real, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Chelsea

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vitoria setubal winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Vitoria Setubal a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vitoria Setubal win	55%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Real win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Vitoria Setubal or draw	77%	–	–
Vitoria Setubal clean sheet	31%	–	–
Real clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.8 4.8 3.1 1 7.8 9.8 5.7 2.4 2 7.8 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 5.3 6.0 3.6 4 2.9 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vitoria Setubal down, Real across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 845 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vitoria Setubal at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Vitoria Setubal, 1.20 for Real. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIT 2–0 REA · REA 2–3 VIT

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

VITORIA SETUBAL

DLLLWD1–1 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–2

REAL

LLWDDD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 5–5 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sintrense	4	+8	10
2	Imortal Albufeira	4	+4	7
3	Amora	4	+2	7
4	FC Serpa	4	+2	6
5	Real	4	+1	6
6	Alcochetense	4	+1	5
7	Lagoa	4	0	5
8	Juventude Évora	4	−1	5
9	Lajense	4	0	4
10	Portel	4	0	4
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	−3	4
12	1º Dezembro	3	−5	2
13	Aljustrelense	4	−6	2
14	Santa Clara B	3	−3	1