Sintrense v Amora prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SintrenseDrawAmora

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sintrense 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sintrense are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sintrense 40%, draw 30%, Amora 30%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Sintrense v AmoraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sintrense win40%

Draw30%

Amora win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sintrense

Amora

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sintrense	5	+6	10
5	Amora	5	+2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sintrense winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Sintrense a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sintrense v Amora~~1.20 – 1.01

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sintrense win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Amora win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Sintrense or draw	70%	–	–
Sintrense clean sheet	37%	–	–
Amora clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.9 10.7 5.6 1 12.8 13.4 6.5 2.2 2 7.9 7.7 3.9 3 3.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sintrense down, Amora across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 853 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sintrense at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Amora away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Sintrense, 1.01 for Amora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AMO 1–2 SIN · SIN 0–1 AMO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D this season · since 16 Aug

SINTRENSE

DWWWL2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

AMORA

WLDWD3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Imortal Albufeira	5	+7	10
2	Sintrense	5	+6	10
3	Real	6	+4	10
4	FC Serpa	5	+4	9
5	Amora	5	+2	8
6	Juventude Évora	6	−1	8
7	Lajense	6	0	7
8	Lagoa	5	0	6
9	Alcochetense	5	−1	5
10	Santa Clara B	5	−1	5
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	−3	5
12	Portel	7	−4	5
13	1º Dezembro	4	−4	5
14	Aljustrelense	5	−9	2