Santa Clara B v Alcochetense prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Santa Clara B 2–0 Alcochetense ALCOCHETENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alcochetense win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alcochetense win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alcochetense 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 30–27–42
1′KICK-OFF Santa Clara B v Alcochetense
8′Little has changed for our model: Alcochetense 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 30–29–42
27′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Alcochetense
45′HALF-TIME Santa Clara B 0–0 Alcochetense
45′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Alcochetense
46′SECOND HALF Santa Clara B 0–0 Alcochetense
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Santa Clara B 1–0 Alcochetense
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Santa Clara B 2–0 Alcochetense
FTFULL TIME Santa Clara B 2–0 Alcochetense
FTSanta Clara B 2–0 Alcochetense · Alcochetense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Santa Clara B win30%

Draw28%

Alcochetense win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Santa Clara B

Alcochetense

7Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Alcochetense	4	+1	5
14	Santa Clara B	3	−3	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alcochetense winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Alcochetense a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Clara B win	30%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Alcochetense win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Santa Clara B or draw	58%	–	–
Santa Clara B clean sheet	27%	–	–
Alcochetense clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.4 11.2 7.8 3.6 1 9.1 12.8 8.3 3.8 2 5.3 6.8 4.6 2.1 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Clara B down, Alcochetense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 845 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Santa Clara B at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Alcochetense away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Santa Clara B, 1.36 for Alcochetense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

SANTA CLARA B

LLD1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1

ALCOCHETENSE

DWLDDW1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sintrense	4	+8	10
2	Imortal Albufeira	4	+4	7
3	Amora	4	+2	7
4	FC Serpa	4	+2	6
5	Real	4	+1	6
6	Alcochetense	4	+1	5
7	Lagoa	4	0	5
8	Juventude Évora	4	−1	5
9	Lajense	4	0	4
10	Portel	4	0	4
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	−3	4
12	1º Dezembro	3	−5	2
13	Aljustrelense	4	−6	2
14	Santa Clara B	3	−3	1