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Real v Juventude Évora

Real

4–1Full time

Juventude Évora

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Real 4–1 Juventude Évora JUVENTUDE ÉVORA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juventude Évora win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.753

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juventude Évora win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Juventude Évora 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–27–44
1′KICK-OFF Real v Juventude Évora
19′Real find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–23–18
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Real 1–0 Juventude Évora
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Juventude Évora win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Real win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Juventude Évora win 41%)
20′We said Juventude Évora at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 59–23–18
26′A goal for Real on 26′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 84–11–5
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Real 2–0 Juventude Évora
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Juventude Évora win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
27′We said Juventude Évora at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 84–11–5
31′We said Juventude Évora at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Juventude Évora win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
43′Juventude Évora score on 43′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 65–24–12
43′We said Juventude Évora at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–1 · 65–24–12
43′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 65–24–12
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Real 2–1 Juventude Évora
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Juventude Évora win: 44% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Real 2–1 Juventude Évora
46′SECOND HALF Real 2–1 Juventude Évora
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Juventude Évora win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
71′Real find the net on 71′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Real 3–1 Juventude Évora
72′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
75′A goal for Real on 75′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
75′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Real 4–1 Juventude Évora
FTFULL TIME Real 4–1 Juventude Évora
FTReal 4–1 Juventude Évora · Juventude Évora win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juventude Évora are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real 30%, draw 26%, Juventude Évora 44%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Real v Juventude ÉvoraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Real win30%

Draw26%

Juventude Évora win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real

Juventude Évora

13Days since last match13

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Juventude Évora	5	+2	8
6	Real	5	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · juventude évora winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Juventude Évora a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real v Juventude Évora~~1.16 – 1.48

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D4 L0 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real win	30%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Juventude Évora win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Real or draw	56%	–	–
Real clean sheet	24%	–	–
Juventude Évora clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.0 10.2 7.7 3.9 1 8.1 12.3 8.5 4.3 2 5.0 6.9 4.9 2.4 3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real down, Juventude Évora across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 853 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Juventude Évora away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Real, 1.48 for Juventude Évora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REA 0–2 JUV · JUV 2–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D this season · since 16 Aug

REAL

WDDDD1–0 · 5–5 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

JUVENTUDE ÉVORA

WDDLW3–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Imortal Albufeira	5	+7	10
2	Sintrense	5	+6	10
3	FC Serpa	5	+4	9
4	Juventude Évora	5	+2	8
5	Amora	5	+2	8
6	Real	5	+1	7
7	Lajense	6	0	7
8	Lagoa	5	0	6
9	Alcochetense	5	−1	5
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	−3	5
11	1º Dezembro	4	−4	5
12	Santa Clara B	4	−1	4
13	Portel	6	−4	4
14	Aljustrelense	5	−9	2