Lajense v 1º Dezembro prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Lajense 0–1 1º Dezembro LAJENSE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lajense win~~50%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.856

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.625

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lajense win at 50%.
1′KICK-OFF Lajense v 1º Dezembro
3′Much as we predicted: Lajense was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Lajense 0–1 1º Dezembro
20′A goal for 1º Dezembro on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–53
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' 1º Dezembro win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Lajense win 22%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Lajense win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was 1º Dezembro win 26%)
21′A goal for 1º Dezembro on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–54
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' 1º Dezembro win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Lajense win 22%)
40′We said Lajense at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–26–59
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
41′We said Lajense at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–26–59
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
45′HALF-TIME Lajense 0–1 1º Dezembro
46′SECOND HALF Lajense 0–1 1º Dezembro
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' 1º Dezembro win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Lajense win 15%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Lajense win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' 1º Dezembro win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Lajense win 15%)
65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Lajense
FTFULL TIME Lajense 0–1 1º Dezembro
FTLajense 0–1 1º Dezembro · Lajense win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lajense win50%

Draw25%

1º Dezembro win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lajense

1º Dezembro

7Days since last match28

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Lajense	4	0	4
12	1º Dezembro	3	−5	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lajense winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

50% The market35%

Us50%

~~Market~~35%

We make Lajense a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lajense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lajense win	50%	35%	+14
Draw	25%	29%	−5
1º Dezembro win	26%	36%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	45%	+9
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	69%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	32%	25%	+7
Lajense or draw	74%	64%	+10
Lajense clean sheet	33%	–	–
1º Dezembro clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.7 6.5 3.9 1 9.7 11.4 6.2 2.5 2 8.3 9.0 5.1 2.0 3 4.7 5.2 2.9 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lajense down, 1º Dezembro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 845 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Lajense at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). 1º Dezembro away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Lajense, 1.15 for 1º Dezembro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

LAJENSE

LDLW0–1 · 5–5 · 0–1 · 2–0

1º DEZEMBRO

LDD0–5 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sintrense	4	+8	10
2	Imortal Albufeira	4	+4	7
3	Amora	4	+2	7
4	FC Serpa	4	+2	6
5	Real	4	+1	6
6	Alcochetense	4	+1	5
7	Lagoa	4	0	5
8	Juventude Évora	4	−1	5
9	Lajense	4	0	4
10	Portel	4	0	4
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	−3	4
12	1º Dezembro	3	−5	2
13	Aljustrelense	4	−6	2
14	Santa Clara B	3	−3	1