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Juventude Évora v Aljustrelense

Juventude Évora

3–0Full time

Aljustrelense

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Juventude Évora 3–0 Aljustrelense JUVENTUDE ÉVORA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juventude Évora win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.296

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juventude Évora win at 56%.
5′Little has changed for our model: Juventude Évora 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
8′Juventude Évora find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
21′Juventude Évora find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
24′We said Juventude Évora at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Juventude Évora 2–0 Aljustrelense
39′A goal for Juventude Évora on 27′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
40′A goal for Juventude Évora on 27′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Juventude Évora 2–0 Aljustrelense
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Juventude Évora win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 7' Juventude Évora 2–0 Aljustrelense
45′⚽ GOAL · 27' Juventude Évora 2–0 Aljustrelense
46′SECOND HALF Juventude Évora 2–0 Aljustrelense
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Juventude Évora 3–0 Aljustrelense
FTFULL TIME Juventude Évora 3–0 Aljustrelense
FTJuventude Évora 3–0 Aljustrelense · Juventude Évora win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Juventude Évora win56%

Draw25%

Aljustrelense win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Juventude Évora

Aljustrelense

7Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Juventude Évora	4	−1	5
13	Aljustrelense	4	−6	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · juventude évora winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Juventude Évora a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventude Évora win	56%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Aljustrelense win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Juventude Évora or draw	81%	–	–
Juventude Évora clean sheet	44%	–	–
Aljustrelense clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 9.1 6.7 3.0 1 13.2 11.6 4.8 2 11.0 9.0 3.9 3 6.2 5.0 2.1 4 2.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventude Évora down, Aljustrelense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 845 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Juventude Évora at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aljustrelense away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Juventude Évora, 0.85 for Aljustrelense. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

JUVENTUDE ÉVORA

WWWDDL1–0 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

ALJUSTRELENSE

DLDL1–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sintrense	4	+8	10
2	Imortal Albufeira	4	+4	7
3	Amora	4	+2	7
4	FC Serpa	4	+2	6
5	Real	4	+1	6
6	Alcochetense	4	+1	5
7	Lagoa	4	0	5
8	Juventude Évora	4	−1	5
9	Lajense	4	0	4
10	Portel	4	0	4
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	−3	4
12	1º Dezembro	3	−5	2
13	Aljustrelense	4	−6	2
14	Santa Clara B	3	−3	1