Imortal Albufeira v Portel prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Imortal Albufeira 3–0 Portel IMORTAL ALBUFEIRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Imortal Albufeira win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Imortal Albufeira win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Imortal Albufeira v Portel
5′Much as we predicted: Imortal Albufeira was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
8′Much as we predicted: Imortal Albufeira was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
45′HALF-TIME Imortal Albufeira 0–0 Portel
46′SECOND HALF Imortal Albufeira 0–0 Portel
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Imortal Albufeira 1–0 Portel
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Imortal Albufeira 2–0 Portel
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Imortal Albufeira 3–0 Portel
90′⚽ GOAL · 54' Imortal Albufeira 3–0 Portel
90′⚽ GOAL · 62' Imortal Albufeira 3–0 Portel
90′⚽ GOAL · 87' Imortal Albufeira 3–0 Portel
FTFULL TIME Imortal Albufeira 3–0 Portel
FTImortal Albufeira 3–0 Portel · Imortal Albufeira win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Imortal Albufeira win40%

Draw27%

Portel win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Imortal Albufeira

Portel

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Imortal Albufeira	4	+4	7
10	Portel	4	0	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · imortal albufeira winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Imortal Albufeira a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Imortal Albufeira win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Portel win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Imortal Albufeira or draw	67%	–	–
Imortal Albufeira clean sheet	31%	–	–
Portel clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.5 8.9 5.6 2.3 1 10.1 12.5 7.2 3.0 2 7.1 8.2 4.9 2.0 3 3.3 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Imortal Albufeira down, Portel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 845 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Imortal Albufeira at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Portel away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Imortal Albufeira, 1.21 for Portel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

IMORTAL ALBUFEIRA

LDWWLD1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

PORTEL

DDDD2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sintrense	4	+8	10
2	Imortal Albufeira	4	+4	7
3	Amora	4	+2	7
4	FC Serpa	4	+2	6
5	Real	4	+1	6
6	Alcochetense	4	+1	5
7	Lagoa	4	0	5
8	Juventude Évora	4	−1	5
9	Lajense	4	0	4
10	Portel	4	0	4
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	−3	4
12	1º Dezembro	3	−5	2
13	Aljustrelense	4	−6	2
14	Santa Clara B	3	−3	1