FC Serpa v Sintrense prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC Serpa 2–0 Sintrense SINTRENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sintrense win~~38%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.671

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.928

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sintrense win at 38%.
4′Much as we predicted: Sintrense was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–28–38
7′Much as we predicted: Sintrense was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
21′A goal for FC Serpa on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–23–13
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Sintrense win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was FC Serpa win 33%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Sintrense win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' FC Serpa win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Sintrense win 13%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Sintrense win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
24′A goal for FC Serpa on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–23–13
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Sintrense win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Sintrense win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was FC Serpa win 33%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Sintrense win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' FC Serpa win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Sintrense win 13%)
39′We said Sintrense at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 68–23–10
40′We said Sintrense at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
45′HALF-TIME FC Serpa 1–0 Sintrense
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sintrense win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' FC Serpa win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Sintrense win 10%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 15' FC Serpa 1–0 Sintrense
46′SECOND HALF FC Serpa 1–0 Sintrense
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FC Serpa 2–0 Sintrense
FTFULL TIME FC Serpa 2–0 Sintrense
FTFC Serpa 2–0 Sintrense · Sintrense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Serpa win33%

Draw28%

Sintrense win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Serpa

Sintrense

15Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sintrense	4	+8	10
4	FC Serpa	4	+2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sintrense winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

38% The market51%

Us38%

~~Market~~51%

We make Sintrense a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sintrense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Serpa win	33%	23%	+11
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Sintrense win	38%	51%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	32%	−9
FC Serpa or draw	62%	49%	+13
FC Serpa clean sheet	29%	–	–
Sintrense clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.6 10.8 7.1 3.0 1 9.9 13.2 8.0 3.4 2 6.0 7.3 4.6 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Serpa down, Sintrense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 845 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Serpa at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sintrense away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for FC Serpa, 1.27 for Sintrense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FCS 1–0 SIN · SIN 1–1 FCS · FCS 0–1 SIN · SIN 1–0 FCS

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

FC SERPA

LLWDDD0–1 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

SINTRENSE

WWDWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sintrense	4	+8	10
2	Imortal Albufeira	4	+4	7
3	Amora	4	+2	7
4	FC Serpa	4	+2	6
5	Real	4	+1	6
6	Alcochetense	4	+1	5
7	Lagoa	4	0	5
8	Juventude Évora	4	−1	5
9	Lajense	4	0	4
10	Portel	4	0	4
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	−3	4
12	1º Dezembro	3	−5	2
13	Aljustrelense	4	−6	2
14	Santa Clara B	3	−3	1