Amora v Lagoa prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Amora 1–1 Lagoa AMORA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Amora win~~48%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.824

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.849

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Amora win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Amora v Lagoa
2′Little has changed for our model: Amora 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
5′Little has changed for our model: Amora 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Amora 1–0 Lagoa
36′36′ and it is 1–1: Lagoa have scored. 1–1 · 41–37–23
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Amora 1–1 Lagoa
37′36′ and it is 1–1: Lagoa have scored. 1–1 · 40–37–23
45′HALF-TIME Amora 1–1 Lagoa
45′⚽ GOAL · 23' Amora 1–1 Lagoa
45′⚽ GOAL · 36' Amora 1–1 Lagoa
46′SECOND HALF Amora 1–1 Lagoa
90′⚽ GOAL · 23' Amora 1–1 Lagoa
90′⚽ GOAL · 36' Amora 1–1 Lagoa
FTFULL TIME Amora 1–1 Lagoa
FTAmora 1–1 Lagoa · Amora win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Amora win48%

Draw27%

Lagoa win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueMedideira Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Amora

Lagoa

14Days since last match28

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Amora	4	+2	7
7	Lagoa	4	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · amora winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make Amora a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · amora win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amora win	48%	52%	−4
Draw	27%	27%	0
Lagoa win	25%	21%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Both teams to score	47%	47%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	−1
Amora or draw	75%	79%	−4
Amora clean sheet	39%	–	–
Lagoa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.6 8.2 4.2 1 12.5 12.5 5.9 2 9.3 8.8 4.2 3 4.6 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amora down, Lagoa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 845 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Amora at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lagoa away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Amora, 0.97 for Lagoa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AMO 1–0 LAG · LAG 1–1 AMO

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

AMORA

WWWLDW1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

LAGOA

WLDLWD3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sintrense	4	+8	10
2	Imortal Albufeira	4	+4	7
3	Amora	4	+2	7
4	FC Serpa	4	+2	6
5	Real	4	+1	6
6	Alcochetense	4	+1	5
7	Lagoa	4	0	5
8	Juventude Évora	4	−1	5
9	Lajense	4	0	4
10	Portel	4	0	4
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	−3	4
12	1º Dezembro	3	−5	2
13	Aljustrelense	4	−6	2
14	Santa Clara B	3	−3	1