UD da Serra v Atlético Malveira prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UD da SerraDrawAtlético Malveira

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · UD da Serra 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UD da Serra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UD da Serra 57%, draw 23%, Atlético Malveira 20%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on UD da Serra v Atlético MalveiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

UD da Serra win57%

Draw23%

Atlético Malveira win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 6

VenueCampo da Portela

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UD da Serra

Atlético Malveira

7Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	UD da Serra	5	+3	11
9	Atlético Malveira	5	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ud da serra winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make UD da Serra a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UD da Serra v Atlético Malveira~~1.87 – 0.99

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UD da Serra win	57%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Atlético Malveira win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
UD da Serra or draw	80%	–	–
UD da Serra clean sheet	38%	–	–
Atlético Malveira clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.6%

0123450 6.6 5.8 3.0 1 10.6 10.6 5.2 2 9.7 9.2 4.6 3 6.0 5.7 2.8 4 2.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UD da Serra down, Atlético Malveira across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 843 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

UD da Serra at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Malveira away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for UD da Serra, 0.99 for Atlético Malveira. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C this season · since 16 Aug

UD DA SERRA

WWDDW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

ATLÉTICO MALVEIRA

LLWDW0–1 · 0–5 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oliveira Hospital	5	+4	12
2	UD da Serra	5	+3	11
3	Os Marialvas	5	+6	10
4	Mortágua	5	+4	10
5	O Elvas	5	+3	10
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	5	−1	9
7	Naval 1893	5	+2	7
8	AD Nogueirense	5	+1	7
9	Atlético Malveira	5	−1	7
10	Fátima	5	−1	4
11	FC Alverca II	5	0	3
12	Sertanense	5	−4	3
13	Nazarenos	5	−7	3
14	Fazendense	5	−9	1