Sertanense v Fátima prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SertanenseDrawFátima

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fátima 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fátima just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sertanense 33%, draw 31%, Fátima 37%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Sertanense v FátimaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sertanense win33%

Draw31%

Fátima win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sertanense

Fátima

14Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Fátima	5	−1	4
12	Sertanense	5	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fátima winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Fátima a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sertanense v Fátima~~1.00 – 1.08

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C this season · since 16 Aug~~W0 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~12 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sertanense win	33%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Fátima win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Sertanense or draw	63%	–	–
Sertanense clean sheet	35%	–	–
Fátima clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 13.5%

0123450 13.5 13.1 7.2 2.7 1 12.2 13.1 6.9 2.6 2 6.3 6.4 3.4 3 2.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sertanense down, Fátima across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 843 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sertanense at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fátima away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Sertanense, 1.08 for Fátima. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FAT 1–1 SER · SER 0–1 FAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C this season · since 16 Aug

SERTANENSE

DLDLD1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

FÁTIMA

DWLLL1–1 · 5–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oliveira Hospital	5	+4	12
2	UD da Serra	5	+3	11
3	Os Marialvas	5	+6	10
4	Mortágua	5	+4	10
5	O Elvas	5	+3	10
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	5	−1	9
7	Naval 1893	5	+2	7
8	AD Nogueirense	5	+1	7
9	Atlético Malveira	5	−1	7
10	Fátima	5	−1	4
11	FC Alverca II	5	0	3
12	Sertanense	5	−4	3
13	Nazarenos	5	−7	3
14	Fazendense	5	−9	1