Os Marialvas v Sertanense prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Os Marialvas 0–0 Sertanense OS MARIALVAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Os Marialvas win~~59%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.947

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.882

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Os Marialvas win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF Os Marialvas v Sertanense
2′Much as we predicted: Os Marialvas was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
5′Much as we predicted: Os Marialvas was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–25–16
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Os Marialvas win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Os Marialvas win: 59% at kick-off, 54% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Os Marialvas win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Os Marialvas win: 59% at kick-off, 54% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Os Marialvas win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
45′HALF-TIME Os Marialvas 0–0 Sertanense
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Os Marialvas win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
46′SECOND HALF Os Marialvas 0–0 Sertanense
90′🟥 RED CARD · 96' Sertanense
FTFULL TIME Os Marialvas 0–0 Sertanense
FTOs Marialvas 0–0 Sertanense · Os Marialvas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Os Marialvas win59%

Draw24%

Sertanense win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Os Marialvas

Sertanense

28Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Os Marialvas	4	+6	9
12	Sertanense	4	−4	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · os marialvas winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

59% The market56%

Us59%

~~Market~~56%

We make Os Marialvas a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · os marialvas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Os Marialvas win	59%	56%	+3
Draw	24%	27%	−2
Sertanense win	17%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Both teams to score	41%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	0
Os Marialvas or draw	83%	82%	+1
Os Marialvas clean sheet	48%	–	–
Sertanense clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 9.8 6.7 2.6 1 14.6 10.8 4.0 2 12.0 8.5 3.2 3 6.8 4.8 4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Os Marialvas down, Sertanense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 836 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Os Marialvas at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sertanense away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Os Marialvas, 0.74 for Sertanense. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OSM 2–1 SER · SER 1–1 OSM

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

OS MARIALVAS

DLWLWW0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–0

SERTANENSE

WLDLDL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mortágua	4	+5	10
2	O Elvas	4	+4	10
3	Os Marialvas	4	+6	9
4	Oliveira Hospital	4	+2	9
5	UD da Serra	4	+2	8
6	Naval 1893	4	+2	6
7	AD Nogueirense	4	+1	6
8	Benfica Castelo Branco	4	−2	6
9	Fátima	4	+1	4
10	Atlético Malveira	4	−3	4
11	FC Alverca II	4	+2	3
12	Sertanense	4	−4	2
13	Fazendense	4	−7	1
14	Nazarenos	4	−9	0