O Elvas v UD da Serra prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

O Elvas 1–2 UD da Serra O ELVAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said O Elvas win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.976

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said O Elvas win at 53%.
1′KICK-OFF O Elvas v UD da Serra
5′Much as we predicted: O Elvas was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–27–20
8′Much as we predicted: O Elvas was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' O Elvas win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' O Elvas win: 53% at kick-off, 48% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' O Elvas 1–0 UD da Serra
41′A goal for O Elvas on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' O Elvas win: 53% at kick-off, 48% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' O Elvas win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' O Elvas win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' O Elvas win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' O Elvas win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME O Elvas 1–0 UD da Serra
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' O Elvas win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 40' O Elvas 1–0 UD da Serra
46′SECOND HALF O Elvas 1–0 UD da Serra
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' O Elvas 1–1 UD da Serra
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' O Elvas 1–2 UD da Serra
FTFULL TIME O Elvas 1–2 UD da Serra
FTO Elvas 1–2 UD da Serra · O Elvas win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

O Elvas win53%

Draw26%

UD da Serra win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueCampo Domingos Carrilho Patalino

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

O Elvas

UD da Serra

14Days since last match28

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	O Elvas	4	+4	10
5	UD da Serra	4	+2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · o elvas winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

53% The market–

Us53%

We make O Elvas a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
O Elvas win	53%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
UD da Serra win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
O Elvas or draw	79%	–	–
O Elvas clean sheet	45%	–	–
UD da Serra clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 10.5 7.9 3.4 1 14.2 11.6 4.8 2 10.7 8.4 3.6 3 5.6 4.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+O Elvas down, UD da Serra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 836 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

O Elvas at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). UD da Serra away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for O Elvas, 0.83 for UD da Serra. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

O ELVAS

WWDWWW4–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

UD DA SERRA

WLWWDD3–1 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mortágua	4	+5	10
2	O Elvas	4	+4	10
3	Os Marialvas	4	+6	9
4	Oliveira Hospital	4	+2	9
5	UD da Serra	4	+2	8
6	Naval 1893	4	+2	6
7	AD Nogueirense	4	+1	6
8	Benfica Castelo Branco	4	−2	6
9	Fátima	4	+1	4
10	Atlético Malveira	4	−3	4
11	FC Alverca II	4	+2	3
12	Sertanense	4	−4	2
13	Fazendense	4	−7	1
14	Nazarenos	4	−9	0