Naval 1893 v Mortágua prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Naval 1893DrawMortágua

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Naval 1893 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Naval 1893 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Naval 1893 48%, draw 29%, Mortágua 22%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Naval 1893 v MortáguaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Naval 1893 win48%

Draw29%

Mortágua win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naval 1893

Mortágua

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mortágua	5	+4	10
7	Naval 1893	5	+2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naval 1893 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Naval 1893 a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naval 1893 v Mortágua~~1.31 – 0.77

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naval 1893 win	48%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Mortágua win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Naval 1893 or draw	78%	–	–
Naval 1893 clean sheet	47%	–	–
Mortágua clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 13.4 9.5 3.8 1 15.9 12.4 4.8 2 10.4 7.8 3.1 3 4.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naval 1893 down, Mortágua across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 843 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naval 1893 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mortágua away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Naval 1893, 0.77 for Mortágua. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAV 2–0 MOR · MOR 2–2 NAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C this season · since 16 Aug

NAVAL 1893

LWLWD1–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

MORTÁGUA

WWWDL3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oliveira Hospital	5	+4	12
2	UD da Serra	5	+3	11
3	Os Marialvas	5	+6	10
4	Mortágua	5	+4	10
5	O Elvas	5	+3	10
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	5	−1	9
7	Naval 1893	5	+2	7
8	AD Nogueirense	5	+1	7
9	Atlético Malveira	5	−1	7
10	Fátima	5	−1	4
11	FC Alverca II	5	0	3
12	Sertanense	5	−4	3
13	Nazarenos	5	−7	3
14	Fazendense	5	−9	1