Mortágua v Benfica Castelo Branco prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Mortágua 0–1 Benfica Castelo Branco MORTÁGUA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mortágua win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.700

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.804

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mortágua win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Mortágua v Benfica Castelo Branco
4′Much as we predicted: Mortágua was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
6′Much as we predicted: Mortágua was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Mortágua win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Mortágua 0–0 Benfica Castelo Branco
46′SECOND HALF Mortágua 0–0 Benfica Castelo Branco
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Mortágua 0–1 Benfica Castelo Branco
FTFULL TIME Mortágua 0–1 Benfica Castelo Branco
FTMortágua 0–1 Benfica Castelo Branco · Mortágua win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mortágua win40%

Draw28%

Benfica Castelo Branco win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mortágua

Benfica Castelo Branco

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mortágua	4	+5	10
8	Benfica Castelo Branco	4	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mortágua winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Mortágua a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mortágua win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mortágua win	40%	45%	−4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Benfica Castelo Branco win	32%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−5
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Mortágua or draw	68%	73%	−5
Mortágua clean sheet	33%	–	–
Benfica Castelo Branco clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.7 9.9 5.6 2.2 1 11.4 12.7 6.9 2.7 2 7.4 7.9 4.4 3 3.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mortágua down, Benfica Castelo Branco across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 836 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mortágua at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Benfica Castelo Branco away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Mortágua, 1.13 for Benfica Castelo Branco. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BEN 3–1 MOR · MOR 1–1 BEN · BEN 1–1 MOR · MOR 0–0 BEN

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

MORTÁGUA

LWWWWD0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

BENFICA CASTELO BRANCO

LLWLWL1–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mortágua	4	+5	10
2	O Elvas	4	+4	10
3	Os Marialvas	4	+6	9
4	Oliveira Hospital	4	+2	9
5	UD da Serra	4	+2	8
6	Naval 1893	4	+2	6
7	AD Nogueirense	4	+1	6
8	Benfica Castelo Branco	4	−2	6
9	Fátima	4	+1	4
10	Atlético Malveira	4	−3	4
11	FC Alverca II	4	+2	3
12	Sertanense	4	−4	2
13	Fazendense	4	−7	1
14	Nazarenos	4	−9	0