Fazendense v Os Marialvas prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FazendenseDrawOs Marialvas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Os Marialvas 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Os Marialvas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fazendense 27%, draw 25%, Os Marialvas 48%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Fazendense v Os MarialvasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Fazendense win27%

Draw25%

Os Marialvas win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fazendense

Os Marialvas

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 16 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Os Marialvas	5	+6	10
14	Fazendense	5	−9	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · os marialvas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Os Marialvas a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fazendense v Os Marialvas~~1.15 – 1.64

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C this season · since 16 Aug~~W0 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 10~~14 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fazendense win	27%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Os Marialvas win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Fazendense or draw	52%	–	–
Fazendense clean sheet	21%	–	–
Os Marialvas clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.0 10.0 8.1 4.5 1 7.1 11.5 8.9 4.9 2.1 2 4.2 6.4 5.1 2.8 3 2.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fazendense down, Os Marialvas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 843 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Fazendense at home: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 2). Os Marialvas away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Fazendense, 1.64 for Os Marialvas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C this season · since 16 Aug

FAZENDENSE

DLLLL3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 1–3

OS MARIALVAS

WLWWD1–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oliveira Hospital	5	+4	12
2	UD da Serra	5	+3	11
3	Os Marialvas	5	+6	10
4	Mortágua	5	+4	10
5	O Elvas	5	+3	10
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	5	−1	9
7	Naval 1893	5	+2	7
8	AD Nogueirense	5	+1	7
9	Atlético Malveira	5	−1	7
10	Fátima	5	−1	4
11	FC Alverca II	5	0	3
12	Sertanense	5	−4	3
13	Nazarenos	5	−7	3
14	Fazendense	5	−9	1