Fátima v Nazarenos prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Fátima 1–3 Nazarenos FÁTIMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fátima win~~60%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.123

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fátima win at 60%.
4′Much as we predicted: Fátima was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
7′Much as we predicted: Fátima was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
21′Nazarenos find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–28–44
24′Nazarenos find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–28–45
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Fátima win: 60% at kick-off, 60% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Fátima win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Nazarenos win 16%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Fátima win: 60% at kick-off, 28% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Nazarenos win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Fátima win 28%)
39′We said Fátima at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–29–51
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Fátima win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Fátima win: 60% at kick-off, 27% now
40′We said Fátima at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–51
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Fátima win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Fátima win: 60% at kick-off, 27% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Fátima win: 60% at kick-off, 19% now
45′HALF-TIME Fátima 0–1 Nazarenos
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Fátima win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Nazarenos win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Fátima win 20%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 16' Fátima 0–1 Nazarenos
46′SECOND HALF Fátima 0–1 Nazarenos
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Fátima 1–1 Nazarenos
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Fátima 1–2 Nazarenos
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Fátima 1–3 Nazarenos
FTFULL TIME Fátima 1–3 Nazarenos
FTFátima 1–3 Nazarenos · Fátima win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fátima win60%

Draw23%

Nazarenos win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fátima

Nazarenos

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Fátima	4	+1	4
14	Nazarenos	4	−9	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fátima winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

60% The market67%

Us60%

~~Market~~67%

We make Fátima a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fátima win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fátima win	60%	67%	−6
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Nazarenos win	16%	11%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	44%	42%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Fátima or draw	84%	89%	−5
Fátima clean sheet	47%	–	–
Nazarenos clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 8.7 6.1 2.5 1 13.7 10.6 4.1 2 11.9 8.9 3.5 3 7.1 5.3 2.1 4 3.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fátima down, Nazarenos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 836 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Fátima at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nazarenos away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Fátima, 0.77 for Nazarenos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

FÁTIMA

WWDWLL3–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

NAZARENOS

LLLL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mortágua	4	+5	10
2	O Elvas	4	+4	10
3	Os Marialvas	4	+6	9
4	Oliveira Hospital	4	+2	9
5	UD da Serra	4	+2	8
6	Naval 1893	4	+2	6
7	AD Nogueirense	4	+1	6
8	Benfica Castelo Branco	4	−2	6
9	Fátima	4	+1	4
10	Atlético Malveira	4	−3	4
11	FC Alverca II	4	+2	3
12	Sertanense	4	−4	2
13	Fazendense	4	−7	1
14	Nazarenos	4	−9	0