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Atlético Malveira v Fazendense

Atlético Malveira

3–1Full time

Fazendense

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio das Seixas

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Atlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense ATLÉTICO MALVEIRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Malveira win~~50%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.368

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.232

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Malveira win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Malveira 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Atlético Malveira v Fazendense
2′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Malveira 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Atlético Malveira 1–0 Fazendense
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Atlético Malveira 2–0 Fazendense
18′16′ and it is 2–0: Atlético Malveira have scored. 2–0 · 91–7–2
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Atlético Malveira win: 50% at kick-off, 91% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Atlético Malveira win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
19′16′ and it is 2–0: Atlético Malveira have scored. 2–0 · 91–7–2
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Atlético Malveira win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Atlético Malveira win: 50% at kick-off, 91% now
34′We said Atlético Malveira at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
35′We said Atlético Malveira at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Malveira 2–0 Fazendense
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atlético Malveira win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 10' Atlético Malveira 2–0 Fazendense
45′⚽ GOAL · 16' Atlético Malveira 2–0 Fazendense
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Malveira 2–0 Fazendense
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Atlético Malveira 2–1 Fazendense
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Atlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense
90′⚽ GOAL · 10' Atlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense
90′⚽ GOAL · 16' Atlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense
90′⚽ GOAL · 51' Atlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense
90′⚽ GOAL · 56' Atlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense
FTFULL TIME Atlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense
FTAtlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense · Atlético Malveira win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atlético Malveira win50%

Draw23%

Fazendense win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueEstadio das Seixas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atlético Malveira

Fazendense

28Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Atlético Malveira	4	−3	4
13	Fazendense	4	−7	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético malveira winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

50% The market61%

Us50%

~~Market~~61%

We make Atlético Malveira a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atlético malveira win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Malveira win	50%	61%	−10
Draw	23%	23%	+1
Fazendense win	26%	16%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%	0
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Atlético Malveira or draw	74%	84%	−10
Atlético Malveira clean sheet	31%	–	–
Fazendense clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.7 6.1 3.8 1 8.8 10.6 6.2 2.6 2 7.8 9.0 5.4 2.3 3 4.7 5.4 3.3 4 2.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Malveira down, Fazendense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 836 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Atlético Malveira at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Fazendense away: 0.50 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Atlético Malveira, 1.22 for Fazendense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

ATLÉTICO MALVEIRA

LLWD0–1 · 0–5 · 3–0 · 1–1

FAZENDENSE

DLLL3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mortágua	4	+5	10
2	O Elvas	4	+4	10
3	Os Marialvas	4	+6	9
4	Oliveira Hospital	4	+2	9
5	UD da Serra	4	+2	8
6	Naval 1893	4	+2	6
7	AD Nogueirense	4	+1	6
8	Benfica Castelo Branco	4	−2	6
9	Fátima	4	+1	4
10	Atlético Malveira	4	−3	4
11	FC Alverca II	4	+2	3
12	Sertanense	4	−4	2
13	Fazendense	4	−7	1
14	Nazarenos	4	−9	0