União Lamas v Camacha prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

União Lamas 0–3 Camacha UNIÃO LAMAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said União Lamas win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.724

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said União Lamas win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: União Lamas was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–31
2′Much as we predicted: União Lamas was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–31
17′10′ and it is 0–2: Camacha have scored. 0–2 · 5–11–84
18′10′ and it is 0–2: Camacha have scored. 0–2 · 5–11–84
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Camacha win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was União Lamas win 5%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' União Lamas win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' União Lamas win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Camacha win 31%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' União Lamas win: 41% at kick-off, 5% now
34′We said União Lamas at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
35′We said União Lamas at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′HALF-TIME União Lamas 0–2 Camacha
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' União Lamas win: 41% at kick-off, 3% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Camacha win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was União Lamas win 3%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 4' União Lamas 0–2 Camacha
45′⚽ GOAL · 10' União Lamas 0–2 Camacha
46′SECOND HALF União Lamas 0–2 Camacha
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' União Lamas 0–3 Camacha
79′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Camacha
90′⚽ GOAL · 4' União Lamas 0–3 Camacha
90′⚽ GOAL · 10' União Lamas 0–3 Camacha
90′⚽ GOAL · 77' União Lamas 0–3 Camacha
90′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Camacha
FTFULL TIME União Lamas 0–3 Camacha
FTUnião Lamas 0–3 Camacha · União Lamas win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

União Lamas win41%

Draw28%

Camacha win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

União Lamas

Camacha

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Camacha	4	+2	8
9	União Lamas	4	0	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · união lamas winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make União Lamas a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · união lamas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
União Lamas win	41%	36%	+5
Draw	28%	31%	−3
Camacha win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	42%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	67%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	23%	+1
União Lamas or draw	69%	67%	+2
União Lamas clean sheet	33%	–	–
Camacha clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.5 8.8 5.4 2.1 1 10.6 13.2 7.0 2.7 2 7.5 8.3 4.7 3 3.4 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+União Lamas down, Camacha across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 847 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

União Lamas at home: 0.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Camacha away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for União Lamas, 1.14 for Camacha. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAM 2–0 UNI · UNI 2–0 CAM

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

UNIÃO LAMAS

LDDLWD0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–3

CAMACHA

WLDWWD2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	4	+8	12
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	4	+2	8
4	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
5	Castro Daire	4	+2	7
6	Florgrade	5	−2	7
7	Salgueiros	4	+1	6
8	Cinfães	4	+1	5
9	União Lamas	4	0	5
10	Beira-Mar	4	−2	3
11	Alpendorada	4	−3	3
12	Estrela Calheta	4	−6	2
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	4	−5	1