Sousense v Estrela Calheta prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sousense 1–3 Estrela Calheta SOUSENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sousense win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sousense win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Sousense v Estrela Calheta
2′Little has changed for our model: Sousense 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
5′Little has changed for our model: Sousense 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
45′HALF-TIME Sousense 0–0 Estrela Calheta
46′SECOND HALF Sousense 0–0 Estrela Calheta
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Sousense 0–1 Estrela Calheta
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sousense 0–2 Estrela Calheta
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Sousense 0–3 Estrela Calheta
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sousense 1–3 Estrela Calheta
90′⚽ GOAL · 58' Sousense 1–3 Estrela Calheta
90′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sousense 1–3 Estrela Calheta
90′⚽ GOAL · 76' Sousense 1–3 Estrela Calheta
90′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sousense 1–3 Estrela Calheta
FTFULL TIME Sousense 1–3 Estrela Calheta
FTSousense 1–3 Estrela Calheta · Sousense win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sousense win44%

Draw28%

Estrela Calheta win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sousense

Estrela Calheta

28Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Estrela Calheta	4	−6	2
14	Sousense	4	−5	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sousense winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Sousense a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sousense win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Estrela Calheta win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Sousense or draw	71%	–	–
Sousense clean sheet	34%	–	–
Estrela Calheta clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 8.2 4.9 1 10.9 12.9 6.6 2.5 2 8.1 8.5 4.6 3 3.9 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sousense down, Estrela Calheta across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 847 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sousense at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Estrela Calheta away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Sousense, 1.09 for Estrela Calheta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

SOUSENSE

LLLD0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–3

ESTRELA CALHETA

DLDL0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	4	+8	12
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	4	+2	8
4	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
5	Castro Daire	4	+2	7
6	Florgrade	5	−2	7
7	Salgueiros	4	+1	6
8	Cinfães	4	+1	5
9	União Lamas	4	0	5
10	Beira-Mar	4	−2	3
11	Alpendorada	4	−3	3
12	Estrela Calheta	4	−6	2
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	4	−5	1