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Sanjoanense v Guarda

Sanjoanense
1–0Full time
Guarda

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33
Sanjoanense 1–0 Guarda SANJOANENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sanjoanense win46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 4 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sanjoanense win at 46%.
  2. 12′Much as we predicted: Sanjoanense was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–25
  3. 45′HALF-TIME Sanjoanense 0–0 Guarda
  4. 46′SECOND HALF Sanjoanense 0–0 Guarda
  5. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sanjoanense 1–0 Guarda
  6. FTFULL TIME Sanjoanense 1–0 Guarda
  7. FTSanjoanense 1–0 Guarda · Sanjoanense win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sanjoanense win46%
Draw29%
Guarda win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sanjoanense winPublished 10 Oct 15:19
46% The market–
Us46%

We make Sanjoanense a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sanjoanense win46%––
Draw29%––
Guarda win25%––
Over 2.5 goals40%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals67%––
Over 3.5 goals21%––
Sanjoanense or draw75%––
Sanjoanense clean sheet40%––
Guarda clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 11.4 8.7 4.5 1 12.8 13.2 5.8 2 9.2 8.3 3.9 3 4.3 3.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sanjoanense down, Guarda across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

SANJOANENSE

DDWL1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

GUARDA

LDLLLD2–6 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ovarense4+812
2Machico4+38
3Camacha4+28
4Castro Daire4+27
5Florgrade4+27
6Salgueiros4+16
7Cinfães4+15
8Sanjoanense405
9União Lamas405
10Beira-Mar4−23
11Alpendorada4−33
12Estrela Calheta4−62
13Guarda4−31
14Sousense4−51

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.