Salgueiros v Ovarense prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SalgueirosDrawOvarense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Salgueiros 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Salgueiros are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salgueiros 39%, draw 33%, Ovarense 28%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Salgueiros v OvarenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Salgueiros win39%

Draw33%

Ovarense win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salgueiros

Ovarense

7Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salgueiros winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Salgueiros a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salgueiros v Ovarense~~1.09 – 0.88

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D4 L0 · W4 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salgueiros win	39%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Ovarense win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Salgueiros or draw	72%	–	–
Salgueiros clean sheet	42%	–	–
Ovarense clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 11.4 5.5 1 14.3 13.8 5.7 2 8.2 7.0 3.1 3 3.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salgueiros down, Ovarense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Salgueiros at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ovarense away: 2.50 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Salgueiros, 0.88 for Ovarense. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 16 Aug

SALGUEIROS

DDDWD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

OVARENSE

WWWWD2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	5	+8	13
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	5	+5	11
4	Castro Daire	5	+2	8
5	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
6	Salgueiros	5	+1	7
7	Florgrade	5	−2	7
8	Cinfães	5	+1	6
9	União Lamas	5	−3	5
10	Estrela Calheta	5	−4	5
11	Beira-Mar	5	−2	4
12	Alpendorada	5	−3	4
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	5	−7	1