Ovarense v Beira-Mar prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ovarense 2–2 Beira-Mar OVARENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ovarense win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ovarense win at 45%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Ovarense 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
3′Little has changed for our model: Ovarense 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
35′A goal for Beira-Mar on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–62
36′A goal for Beira-Mar on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–62
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ovarense win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Beira-Mar win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Ovarense win 12%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ovarense win: 45% at kick-off, 42% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Ovarense win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Beira-Mar win 25%)
45′HALF-TIME Ovarense 0–1 Beira-Mar
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ovarense win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Beira-Mar win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Ovarense win 12%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 29' Ovarense 0–1 Beira-Mar
46′SECOND HALF Ovarense 0–1 Beira-Mar
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ovarense 1–1 Beira-Mar
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Ovarense 1–2 Beira-Mar
90′⚽ GOAL · 29' Ovarense 1–2 Beira-Mar
90′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ovarense 1–2 Beira-Mar
90′⚽ GOAL · 76' Ovarense 1–2 Beira-Mar
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Ovarense 2–2 Beira-Mar
FTFULL TIME Ovarense 2–2 Beira-Mar
FTOvarense 2–2 Beira-Mar · Ovarense win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ovarense win45%

Draw30%

Beira-Mar win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ovarense

Beira-Mar

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	4	+8	12
10	Beira-Mar	4	−2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ovarense winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Ovarense a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ovarense win	45%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Beira-Mar win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Ovarense or draw	74%	–	–
Ovarense clean sheet	41%	–	–
Beira-Mar clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 12.1 9.3 4.6 1 13.4 13.3 5.7 2 9.2 8.1 3.7 3 4.1 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ovarense down, Beira-Mar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 847 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ovarense at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Beira-Mar away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Ovarense, 0.92 for Beira-Mar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

OVARENSE

WWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

BEIRA-MAR

WWDLDD4–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	4	+8	12
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	4	+2	8
4	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
5	Castro Daire	4	+2	7
6	Florgrade	5	−2	7
7	Salgueiros	4	+1	6
8	Cinfães	4	+1	5
9	União Lamas	4	0	5
10	Beira-Mar	4	−2	3
11	Alpendorada	4	−3	3
12	Estrela Calheta	4	−6	2
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	4	−5	1