Home › Football › Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B › Machico v Florgrade

Machico v Florgrade

Machico

4–0Full time

Florgrade

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Machico 4–0 Florgrade MACHICO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Machico win~~39%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.562

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.416

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Machico win at 39%.
14′Much as we predicted: Machico was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–34–29
29′⚽ GOAL · 27' Machico 1–0 Florgrade
35′Machico find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Machico win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Machico 2–0 Florgrade
45′HALF-TIME Machico 2–0 Florgrade
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Machico 3–0 Florgrade
47′SECOND HALF Machico 3–0 Florgrade
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Machico 4–0 Florgrade
FTFULL TIME Machico 4–0 Florgrade
FTMachico 4–0 Florgrade · Machico win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Machico win39%

Draw32%

Florgrade win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · machico winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market47%

Us39%

~~Market~~47%

We make Machico a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · machico win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Machico win	39%	47%	−9
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Florgrade win	29%	24%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	33%	45%	−12
Both teams to score	40%	50%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	15%	25%	−10
Machico or draw	71%	76%	−5
Machico clean sheet	40%	–	–
Florgrade clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.4%

0123450 14.4 11.3 5.6 1 13.7 13.8 6.0 2 8.0 7.2 3.3 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Machico down, Florgrade across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 845 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Machico at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Florgrade away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Machico, 0.92 for Florgrade. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

MACHICO

DDDWDW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

FLORGRADE

LWDWLW1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	4	+8	12
2	Machico	4	+3	8
3	Camacha	4	+2	8
4	Castro Daire	4	+2	7
5	Florgrade	4	+2	7
6	Salgueiros	4	+1	6
7	Cinfães	4	+1	5
8	Sanjoanense	4	0	5
9	União Lamas	4	0	5
10	Beira-Mar	4	−2	3
11	Alpendorada	4	−3	3
12	Estrela Calheta	4	−6	2
13	Guarda	4	−3	1
14	Sousense	4	−5	1