Guarda v Machico prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GuardaDrawMachico

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Machico 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Machico are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guarda 31%, draw 31%, Machico 38%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Guarda v MachicoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Guarda win31%

Draw31%

Machico win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guarda

Machico

15Days since last match15

Last match: 10 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Machico	5	+7	11
13	Guarda	5	−4	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · machico winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Machico a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guarda v Machico~~0.99 – 1.14

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 11~~13 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guarda win	31%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Machico win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Guarda or draw	62%	–	–
Guarda clean sheet	33%	–	–
Machico clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.4 12.6 7.7 3.0 1 10.9 13.8 7.3 2.8 2 5.9 6.4 3.6 3 2.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guarda down, Machico across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guarda at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Machico away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Guarda, 1.14 for Machico. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAC 1–0 GUA · GUA 3–0 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 15 Aug

GUARDA

LLLDL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

MACHICO

DWDWW0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	5	+8	13
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	5	+5	11
4	Castro Daire	5	+2	8
5	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
6	Salgueiros	5	+1	7
7	Florgrade	5	−2	7
8	Cinfães	5	+1	6
9	União Lamas	5	−3	5
10	Estrela Calheta	5	−4	5
11	Beira-Mar	5	−2	4
12	Alpendorada	5	−3	4
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	5	−7	1