Florgrade v Cinfães prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FlorgradeDrawCinfães

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cinfães 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cinfães just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Florgrade 33%, draw 32%, Cinfães 35%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Florgrade v CinfãesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Florgrade win33%

Draw32%

Cinfães win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Florgrade

Cinfães

8Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Florgrade	5	−2	7
8	Cinfães	5	+1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cinfães winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Cinfães a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Florgrade v Cinfães~~1.01 – 1.06

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~7 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Florgrade win	33%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Cinfães win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Florgrade or draw	65%	–	–
Florgrade clean sheet	35%	–	–
Cinfães clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 13.9 12.5 7.1 2.6 1 11.8 14.0 7.0 2.5 2 6.4 6.6 3.5 3 2.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Florgrade down, Cinfães across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Florgrade at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cinfães away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Florgrade, 1.06 for Cinfães. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CIN 1–1 FLO · FLO 1–0 CIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 16 Aug

FLORGRADE

DWLWL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–4

CINFÃES

WDLDD2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	5	+8	13
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	5	+5	11
4	Castro Daire	5	+2	8
5	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
6	Salgueiros	5	+1	7
7	Florgrade	5	−2	7
8	Cinfães	5	+1	6
9	União Lamas	5	−3	5
10	Estrela Calheta	5	−4	5
11	Beira-Mar	5	−2	4
12	Alpendorada	5	−3	4
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	5	−7	1