Estrela Calheta v União Lamas prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Estrela CalhetaDrawUnião Lamas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Estrela Calheta 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estrela Calheta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estrela Calheta 41%, draw 28%, União Lamas 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Estrela Calheta v União LamasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Estrela Calheta win41%

Draw28%

União Lamas win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estrela Calheta

União Lamas

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	União Lamas	5	−3	5
10	Estrela Calheta	5	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estrela calheta winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Estrela Calheta a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estrela Calheta v União Lamas~~1.36 – 1.12

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estrela Calheta win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
União Lamas win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Estrela Calheta or draw	70%	–	–
Estrela Calheta clean sheet	33%	–	–
União Lamas clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.7 8.6 5.3 2.0 1 10.6 13.2 6.9 2.6 2 7.7 8.3 4.6 3 3.6 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estrela Calheta down, União Lamas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Estrela Calheta at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 2). União Lamas away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Estrela Calheta, 1.12 for União Lamas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 15 Aug

ESTRELA CALHETA

DLDLW0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 3–1

UNIÃO LAMAS

DLWDL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	5	+8	13
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	5	+5	11
4	Castro Daire	5	+2	8
5	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
6	Salgueiros	5	+1	7
7	Florgrade	5	−2	7
8	Cinfães	5	+1	6
9	União Lamas	5	−3	5
10	Estrela Calheta	5	−4	5
11	Beira-Mar	5	−2	4
12	Alpendorada	5	−3	4
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	5	−7	1