Cinfães v Alpendorada prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Cinfães 0–0 Alpendorada CINFÃES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cinfães win~~47%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.781

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.771

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cinfães win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Cinfães v Alpendorada
2′Little has changed for our model: Cinfães 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
6′Little has changed for our model: Cinfães 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
45′HALF-TIME Cinfães 0–0 Alpendorada
46′SECOND HALF Cinfães 0–0 Alpendorada
53′PENALTY MISSED · 53' Alpendorada
90′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Cinfães
90′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Alpendorada
90′PENALTY MISSED · 53' Alpendorada
FTFULL TIME Cinfães 0–0 Alpendorada
FTCinfães 0–0 Alpendorada · Cinfães win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cinfães win47%

Draw29%

Alpendorada win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cinfães

Alpendorada

14Days since last match28

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cinfães	4	+1	5
11	Alpendorada	4	−3	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cinfães winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make Cinfães a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cinfães win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cinfães win	47%	46%	+2
Draw	29%	29%	0
Alpendorada win	23%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
Cinfães or draw	77%	75%	+1
Cinfães clean sheet	42%	–	–
Alpendorada clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 11.7 8.6 4.1 1 13.7 13.2 5.5 2 9.8 8.4 3.7 3 4.5 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cinfães down, Alpendorada across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 847 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cinfães at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Alpendorada away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Cinfães, 0.88 for Alpendorada. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALP 0–0 CIN · CIN 0–0 ALP · CIN 1–3 ALP · ALP 0–2 CIN

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

CINFÃES

WWWDLD2–0 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

ALPENDORADA

WLWLLL2–0 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	4	+8	12
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	4	+2	8
4	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
5	Castro Daire	4	+2	7
6	Florgrade	5	−2	7
7	Salgueiros	4	+1	6
8	Cinfães	4	+1	5
9	União Lamas	4	0	5
10	Beira-Mar	4	−2	3
11	Alpendorada	4	−3	3
12	Estrela Calheta	4	−6	2
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	4	−5	1