Castro Daire v Salgueiros prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Castro Daire 0–0 Salgueiros SALGUEIROS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Salgueiros win~~34%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.666

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.705

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Salgueiros win at 34%.
1′KICK-OFF Castro Daire v Salgueiros
3′Much as we predicted: Salgueiros was 34% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 33–33–35
4′Much as we predicted: Salgueiros was 34% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 32–33–35
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Salgueiros win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Castro Daire 0–0 Salgueiros
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Salgueiros win 29%)
46′SECOND HALF Castro Daire 0–0 Salgueiros
FTFULL TIME Castro Daire 0–0 Salgueiros
FTCastro Daire 0–0 Salgueiros · Salgueiros win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Castro Daire win32%

Draw33%

Salgueiros win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Castro Daire

Salgueiros

7Days since last match28

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Castro Daire	4	+2	7
7	Salgueiros	4	+1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salgueiros winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

34% The market34%

Us34%

~~Market~~34%

We make Salgueiros a 34% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · salgueiros win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 34% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castro Daire win	32%	35%	−3
Draw	33%	31%	+2
Salgueiros win	34%	34%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Both teams to score	37%	47%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	13%	21%	−9
Castro Daire or draw	66%	66%	−1
Castro Daire clean sheet	39%	–	–
Salgueiros clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.5%

0123450 16.5 13.8 7.1 2.4 1 13.1 13.7 6.2 2.1 2 6.5 6.0 2.9 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castro Daire down, Salgueiros across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 847 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Castro Daire at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Salgueiros away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Castro Daire, 0.97 for Salgueiros. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAL 1–1 CAS · CAS 1–2 SAL

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

CASTRO DAIRE

WLLWDW3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

SALGUEIROS

LDDDDW0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	4	+8	12
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	4	+2	8
4	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
5	Castro Daire	4	+2	7
6	Florgrade	5	−2	7
7	Salgueiros	4	+1	6
8	Cinfães	4	+1	5
9	União Lamas	4	0	5
10	Beira-Mar	4	−2	3
11	Alpendorada	4	−3	3
12	Estrela Calheta	4	−6	2
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	4	−5	1