Beira-Mar v Sousense prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Beira-MarDrawSousense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Beira-Mar 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beira-Mar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Beira-Mar 55%, draw 26%, Sousense 19%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Beira-Mar v SousenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Beira-Mar win55%

Draw26%

Sousense win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beira-Mar

Sousense

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Beira-Mar	5	−2	4
14	Sousense	5	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beira-mar winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Beira-Mar a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Beira-Mar v Sousense~~1.69 – 0.88

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 16 Aug~~W0 D4 L1 · W0 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 1~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beira-Mar win	55%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Sousense win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Beira-Mar or draw	81%	–	–
Beira-Mar clean sheet	42%	–	–
Sousense clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 8.9 6.1 3.1 1 12.2 11.9 4.9 2 10.7 9.2 4.1 3 6.1 5.2 2.3 4 2.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beira-Mar down, Sousense across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Beira-Mar at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sousense away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Beira-Mar, 0.88 for Sousense. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 16 Aug

BEIRA-MAR

DLDDD1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

SOUSENSE

LLLDL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	5	+8	13
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	5	+5	11
4	Castro Daire	5	+2	8
5	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
6	Salgueiros	5	+1	7
7	Florgrade	5	−2	7
8	Cinfães	5	+1	6
9	União Lamas	5	−3	5
10	Estrela Calheta	5	−4	5
11	Beira-Mar	5	−2	4
12	Alpendorada	5	−3	4
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	5	−7	1