Alpendorada v Castro Daire prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AlpendoradaDrawCastro Daire

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alpendorada 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alpendorada are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alpendorada 41%, draw 32%, Castro Daire 27%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Alpendorada v Castro DaireBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Alpendorada win41%

Draw32%

Castro Daire win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 6

VenueMunicipal Stadium Alpendorada

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alpendorada

Castro Daire

7Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Castro Daire	5	+2	8
12	Alpendorada	5	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alpendorada winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Alpendorada a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alpendorada v Castro Daire~~1.16 – 0.87

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 8~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alpendorada win	41%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Castro Daire win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Alpendorada or draw	73%	–	–
Alpendorada clean sheet	42%	–	–
Castro Daire clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.6%

0123450 14.6 10.6 5.0 1 14.2 13.6 5.6 2 8.7 7.3 3.2 3 3.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alpendorada down, Castro Daire across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alpendorada at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Castro Daire away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Alpendorada, 0.87 for Castro Daire. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALP 1–0 CAS · CAS 1–0 ALP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B this season · since 16 Aug

ALPENDORADA

WLLLD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–0

CASTRO DAIRE

LWDWD0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ovarense	5	+8	13
2	Machico	5	+7	11
3	Camacha	5	+5	11
4	Castro Daire	5	+2	8
5	Sanjoanense	5	+1	8
6	Salgueiros	5	+1	7
7	Florgrade	5	−2	7
8	Cinfães	5	+1	6
9	União Lamas	5	−3	5
10	Estrela Calheta	5	−4	5
11	Beira-Mar	5	−2	4
12	Alpendorada	5	−3	4
13	Guarda	5	−4	1
14	Sousense	5	−7	1