Add to your Home ScreenGet the appFree · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A › Vinhais v Os Limianos

Back
Portugal flag

Vinhais v Os Limianos

Vinhais
1–2Full time
Os Limianos

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos OS LIMIANOS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Os Limianos win42%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.516
The market’s Brier score0.284

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Os Limianos win at 42%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Vinhais v Os Limianos
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Os Limianos was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 33–26–41
  4. 5′Much as we predicted: Os Limianos was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 32–27–41
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Vinhais 0–1 Os Limianos
  6. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Vinhais 0–2 Os Limianos
  7. 18′Os Limianos find the net on 13′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–88
  8. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 88% now
  9. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
  10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
  11. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 88% now
  12. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
  13. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 88% now
  14. 21′Os Limianos find the net on 13′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
  15. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
  16. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 88% now
  17. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  18. 36′A goal for Vinhais on 22′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–20–71
  19. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
  20. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
  21. 37′A goal for Vinhais on 22′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–20–71
  22. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
  23. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
  24. 45′HALF-TIME Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  25. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Os Limianos win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
  26. 45′⚽ GOAL · 9' Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  27. 45′⚽ GOAL · 13' Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  28. 45′⚽ GOAL · 22' Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  29. 46′SECOND HALF Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  30. 82′PENALTY MISSED · 82' Vinhais
  31. 90′⚽ GOAL · 9' Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  32. 90′⚽ GOAL · 13' Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  33. 90′⚽ GOAL · 22' Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  34. 90′PENALTY MISSED · 82' Vinhais
  35. FTFULL TIME Vinhais 1–2 Os Limianos
  36. FTVinhais 1–2 Os Limianos · Os Limianos win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vinhais win33%
Draw26%
Os Limianos win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vinhais

Os Limianos

28Days since last match14
0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Os Limianos4+38
14Vinhais4−90

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · os limianos winPublished 11 Oct 15:13
42% The market57%
Us42%
Market57%

We make Os Limianos a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:2011 OCT 12:19
Our probability · os limianos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vinhais win33%18%+14
Draw26%25%+1
Os Limianos win42%57%−15
Over 2.5 goals50%50%0
Both teams to score54%50%+4
Over 1.5 goals75%74%0
Over 3.5 goals28%30%−2
Vinhais or draw58%43%+15
Vinhais clean sheet24%––
Os Limianos clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 7.2 9.8 7.0 3.4 1 8.5 12.1 8.5 4.1 2 5.3 7.4 5.3 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vinhais down, Os Limianos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

VINHAIS

LLLL0–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–4

OS LIMIANOS

DLWDWD0–0 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bragança4+510
2Tirsense4+59
3Chaves II4+19
4SC Braga B4+58
5Os Limianos4+38
6Vila Meã4+47
7Celoricense4+17
8Montalegre4+26
9Rebordosa4−14
10Brito4−43
11Ponte da Barca4−43
12Maria da Fonte4−53
13Maia Lidador4−31
14Vinhais4−90

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.