Vila Meã v Brito prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vila MeãDrawBrito

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vila Meã 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vila Meã are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vila Meã 49%, draw 26%, Brito 24%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Vila Meã v BritoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Vila Meã win49%

Draw26%

Brito win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vila Meã

Brito

14Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Vila Meã	5	+4	8
12	Brito	5	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vila meã winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Vila Meã a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vila Meã v Brito~~1.54 – 1.00

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~7 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vila Meã win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Brito win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Vila Meã or draw	76%	–	–
Vila Meã clean sheet	37%	–	–
Brito clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.5 7.7 4.0 1 11.9 12.2 5.9 2.0 2 9.3 9.0 4.5 3 4.8 4.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vila Meã down, Brito across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 861 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vila Meã at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Brito away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Vila Meã, 1.00 for Brito. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIL 2–0 BRI · BRI 0–2 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug

VILA MEÃ

WDLWD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–0

BRITO

LLWLL2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chaves II	5	+5	12
2	SC Braga B	5	+6	11
3	Os Limianos	5	+4	11
4	Bragança	5	+3	10
5	Tirsense	5	+4	9
6	Montalegre	5	+4	9
7	Vila Meã	5	+4	8
8	Celoricense	5	+1	8
9	Rebordosa	5	−1	5
10	Ponte da Barca	5	−4	4
11	Maria da Fonte	5	−5	4
12	Brito	5	−8	3
13	Maia Lidador	5	−3	2
14	Vinhais	5	−10	0