Tirsense v Maia Lidador prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TirsenseDrawMaia Lidador

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tirsense 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tirsense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tirsense 54%, draw 26%, Maia Lidador 20%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Tirsense v Maia LidadorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tirsense win54%

Draw26%

Maia Lidador win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 6

VenueEstadio Abel Alves de Figueiredo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tirsense

Maia Lidador

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Tirsense	5	+4	9
13	Maia Lidador	5	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tirsense winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Tirsense a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tirsense v Maia Lidador~~1.56 – 0.81

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D0 L2 · W0 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 2~~5 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tirsense win	54%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Maia Lidador win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Tirsense or draw	80%	–	–
Tirsense clean sheet	45%	–	–
Maia Lidador clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 10.0 7.4 3.2 1 14.3 11.9 4.7 2 11.2 8.9 3.6 3 5.8 4.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tirsense down, Maia Lidador across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 861 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Tirsense at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Maia Lidador away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Tirsense, 0.81 for Maia Lidador. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug

TIRSENSE

WWLWL1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3

MAIA LIDADOR

LLLDD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chaves II	5	+5	12
2	SC Braga B	5	+6	11
3	Os Limianos	5	+4	11
4	Bragança	5	+3	10
5	Tirsense	5	+4	9
6	Montalegre	5	+4	9
7	Vila Meã	5	+4	8
8	Celoricense	5	+1	8
9	Rebordosa	5	−1	5
10	Ponte da Barca	5	−4	4
11	Maria da Fonte	5	−5	4
12	Brito	5	−8	3
13	Maia Lidador	5	−3	2
14	Vinhais	5	−10	0