SC Braga B v Tirsense prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

SC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense SC BRAGA B WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Braga B win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.531

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SC Braga B win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF SC Braga B v Tirsense
2′Much as we predicted: SC Braga B was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
3′Much as we predicted: SC Braga B was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' SC Braga B 1–0 Tirsense
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' SC Braga B 2–0 Tirsense
35′SC Braga B find the net on 27′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' SC Braga B win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' SC Braga B win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
36′SC Braga B find the net on 27′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' SC Braga B win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' SC Braga B win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' SC Braga B 2–1 Tirsense
45′HALF-TIME SC Braga B 2–1 Tirsense
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' SC Braga B win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 21' SC Braga B 2–1 Tirsense
45′⚽ GOAL · 27' SC Braga B 2–1 Tirsense
46′SECOND HALF SC Braga B 2–1 Tirsense
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' SC Braga B 2–2 Tirsense
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' SC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense
90′⚽ GOAL · 21' SC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense
90′⚽ GOAL · 27' SC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense
90′⚽ GOAL · 45' SC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense
90′⚽ GOAL · 52' SC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense
90′⚽ GOAL · 63' SC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense
FTFULL TIME SC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense
FTSC Braga B 3–2 Tirsense · SC Braga B win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

SC Braga B win41%

Draw28%

Tirsense win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SC Braga B

Tirsense

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tirsense	4	+5	9
4	SC Braga B	4	+5	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc braga b winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make SC Braga B a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sc braga b win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Braga B win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Tirsense win	32%	25%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	41%	+1
Both teams to score	48%	47%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	66%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
SC Braga B or draw	68%	75%	−6
SC Braga B clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tirsense clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.6 10.1 5.6 2.1 1 11.7 12.8 7.0 2.6 2 7.6 8.1 4.5 3 3.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Braga B down, Tirsense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 854 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

SC Braga B at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Tirsense away: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for SC Braga B, 1.11 for Tirsense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

SC BRAGA B

WDDW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0

TIRSENSE

DDWWLW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bragança	4	+5	10
2	Tirsense	4	+5	9
3	Chaves II	4	+1	9
4	SC Braga B	4	+5	8
5	Os Limianos	4	+3	8
6	Vila Meã	4	+4	7
7	Celoricense	4	+1	7
8	Montalegre	4	+2	6
9	Rebordosa	4	−1	4
10	Brito	4	−4	3
11	Ponte da Barca	4	−4	3
12	Maria da Fonte	4	−5	3
13	Maia Lidador	4	−3	1
14	Vinhais	4	−9	0